Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·
Eredivisie·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Serdar Gozubuyuk · Netherlands
Goals
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.673.26safe0.63–2.560.81–2.531.44–5.09safer0.37–2.820.57–2.780.94–5.59actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.395.1910.58safe3.53–7.253.48–6.907.02–14.14safer3.03–7.743.01–7.376.05–15.11actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5213.5428.06safe10.81–18.2210.17–16.9220.98–35.14safer9.78–19.259.23–17.8519.02–37.11actual20.0011.0031.00
Shots in box
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction10.099.1119.20safe7.57–12.616.81–11.4114.39–24.02safer6.71–13.476.02–12.2112.73–25.68actual13.008.0021.00
Blocked shots
49%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.243.778.02safe2.66–5.832.36–5.195.02–11.02safer2.13–6.361.87–5.684.00–12.04actual9.002.0011.00
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.074.789.85safe2.87–7.282.80–6.765.67–14.03safer2.27–7.872.26–7.294.53–15.17actual6.005.0011.00
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction48.0452.24safe41.72–54.3645.92–58.56safer40.13–55.9544.33–60.16actual40.0060.00
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction446458905safe381–512394–523775–1035safer363–529376–540740–1070actual356523879
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction76.6577.75safe72.43–80.8773.24–82.25safer71.13–82.1771.91–83.58
Fouls
39%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7310.4520.18safe6.87–12.587.51–13.4014.37–25.98safer5.98–13.476.59–14.3112.57–27.78actual10.0012.0022.00
Offsides
31%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.853.32safe0.26–2.680.69–3.020.95–5.69safer0.00–3.020.36–3.350.27–6.37actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.293.85safe0.51–2.621.17–3.411.68–6.03safer0.23–2.890.88–3.701.12–6.59actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.48safer0.00–0.350.00–0.430.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.373.176.54safe1.95–4.781.62–4.723.57–9.50safer1.56–5.171.18–5.162.75–10.32actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.63–2.56 0.37–2.82 | 3.00 | 1.67 0.81–2.53 0.57–2.78 | 2.00 | 3.26 1.44–5.09 0.94–5.59 | 5.00 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Shots on target | 5.39 3.53–7.25 3.03–7.74 | 5.00 | 5.19 3.48–6.90 3.01–7.37 | 4.00 | 10.58 7.02–14.14 6.05–15.11 | 9.00 | 46% 41% |
| Total shots | 14.52 10.81–18.22 9.78–19.25 | 20.00 | 13.54 10.17–16.92 9.23–17.85 | 11.00 | 28.06 20.98–35.14 19.02–37.11 | 31.00 | 54% 39% |
| Shots in box | 10.09 7.57–12.61 6.71–13.47 | 13.00 | 9.11 6.81–11.41 6.02–12.21 | 8.00 | 19.20 14.39–24.02 12.73–25.68 | 21.00 | 54% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 4.24 2.66–5.83 2.13–6.36 | 9.00 | 3.77 2.36–5.19 1.87–5.68 | 2.00 | 8.02 5.02–11.02 4.00–12.04 | 11.00 | 49% 14% 36% |
| Corners | 5.07 2.87–7.28 2.27–7.87 | 6.00 | 4.78 2.80–6.76 2.26–7.29 | 5.00 | 9.85 5.67–14.03 4.53–15.17 | 11.00 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 48.04 41.72–54.36 40.13–55.95 | 40.00 | 52.24 45.92–58.56 44.33–60.16 | 60.00 | — | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 446 381–512 363–529 | 356 | 458 394–523 376–540 | 523 | 905 775–1035 740–1070 | 879 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.65 72.43–80.87 71.13–82.17 | — | 77.75 73.24–82.25 71.91–83.58 | — | — | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 9.73 6.87–12.58 5.98–13.47 | 10.00 | 10.45 7.51–13.40 6.59–14.31 | 12.00 | 20.18 14.37–25.98 12.57–27.78 | 22.00 | 39% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.26–2.68 0.00–3.02 | 0.00 | 1.85 0.69–3.02 0.36–3.35 | 1.00 | 3.32 0.95–5.69 0.27–6.37 | 1.00 | 31% 23% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.62 0.23–2.89 | 1.00 | 2.29 1.17–3.41 0.88–3.70 | 2.00 | 3.85 1.68–6.03 1.12–6.59 | 3.00 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.95–4.78 1.56–5.17 | 2.00 | 3.17 1.62–4.72 1.18–5.16 | 2.00 | 6.54 3.57–9.50 2.75–10.32 | 4.00 | 45% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.