Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
25%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.422.79safe0.40–2.330.57–2.280.97–4.61safer0.14–2.580.34–2.510.49–5.09
Shots on target
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.044.579.60safe3.17–6.902.82–6.316.00–13.21safer2.68–7.392.36–6.775.04–14.16
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9613.7428.69safe11.03–18.8810.17–17.3021.20–36.18safer9.94–19.979.21–18.2619.15–38.23
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction9.019.0018.01safe6.07–11.956.32–11.6812.39–23.63safer5.24–12.785.58–12.4210.82–25.20
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.597.58safe2.11–5.871.94–5.244.04–11.12safer1.57–6.421.44–5.733.01–12.15
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.725.0210.74safe3.51–7.933.02–7.026.52–14.95safer2.93–8.512.48–7.555.42–16.06
Possession %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction53.0446.86safe46.25–59.8340.07–53.64safer44.58–61.5038.40–55.31
Passes
67%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction453401854safe386–521334–467720–988safer368–539317–485685–1023
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction69.1171.35safe65.08–73.1467.03–75.67safer63.79–74.4365.72–76.98
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6513.4727.12safe10.81–16.4810.53–16.4221.34–32.90safer10.05–17.249.78–17.1719.83–34.41
Offsides
37%
24%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.563.08safe0.36–2.680.47–2.660.83–5.34safer0.06–2.980.18–2.940.24–5.93
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.873.70safe0.78–2.880.74–3.001.53–5.88safer0.52–3.150.45–3.290.97–6.44
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.093.486.56safe1.65–4.521.92–5.033.57–9.56safer1.26–4.911.50–5.462.76–10.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.40–2.33 0.14–2.58 | 1.42 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.51 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 36% 25% 39% |
| Shots on target | 5.04 3.17–6.90 2.68–7.39 | 4.57 2.82–6.31 2.36–6.77 | 9.60 6.00–13.21 5.04–14.16 | 50% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.96 11.03–18.88 9.94–19.97 | 13.74 10.17–17.30 9.21–18.26 | 28.69 21.20–36.18 19.15–38.23 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 9.01 6.07–11.95 5.24–12.78 | 9.00 6.32–11.68 5.58–12.42 | 18.01 12.39–23.63 10.82–25.20 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.11–5.87 1.57–6.42 | 3.59 1.94–5.24 1.44–5.73 | 7.58 4.04–11.12 3.01–12.15 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.72 3.51–7.93 2.93–8.51 | 5.02 3.02–7.02 2.48–7.55 | 10.74 6.52–14.95 5.42–16.06 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 53.04 46.25–59.83 44.58–61.50 | 46.86 40.07–53.64 38.40–55.31 | — | 62% 34% |
| Passes | 453 386–521 368–539 | 401 334–467 317–485 | 854 720–988 685–1023 | 67% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.11 65.08–73.14 63.79–74.43 | 71.35 67.03–75.67 65.72–76.98 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 13.65 10.81–16.48 10.05–17.24 | 13.47 10.53–16.42 9.78–17.17 | 27.12 21.34–32.90 19.83–34.41 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.06–2.98 | 1.56 0.47–2.66 0.18–2.94 | 3.08 0.83–5.34 0.24–5.93 | 37% 24% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.52–3.15 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.70 1.53–5.88 0.97–6.44 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.65–4.52 1.26–4.91 | 3.48 1.92–5.03 1.50–5.46 | 6.56 3.57–9.56 2.76–10.37 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.