Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.372.67safe0.34–2.270.51–2.220.85–4.50safer0.09–2.520.29–2.450.37–4.98
Shots on target
44%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.754.679.42safe2.89–6.612.93–6.415.81–13.03safer2.40–7.102.46–6.884.86–13.98
Total shots
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7213.3428.07safe10.80–18.659.78–16.9120.58–35.55safer9.71–19.748.82–17.8718.53–37.60
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.188.5317.71safe6.24–12.125.85–11.2112.09–23.33safer5.41–12.955.11–11.9510.52–24.90
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.842.966.80safe1.95–5.721.31–4.623.26–10.33safer1.41–6.260.82–5.112.23–11.37
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.205.0010.21safe2.99–7.423.00–7.005.99–14.42safer2.42–7.992.47–7.544.89–15.53
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.6751.78safe41.88–55.4644.99–58.56safer40.21–57.1343.32–60.24
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction410424834safe343–477358–491701–968safer324–495340–508665–1004
Pass accuracy %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction65.7170.39safe61.68–69.7466.06–74.71safer60.39–71.0364.75–76.02
Fouls
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4313.7724.20safe7.59–13.2610.83–16.7218.42–29.98safer6.83–14.0210.08–17.4716.91–31.48
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.362.80safe0.28–2.600.27–2.450.54–5.05safer0.00–2.900.00–2.740.00–5.64
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.113.64safe0.48–2.580.98–3.241.46–5.82safer0.21–2.840.69–3.530.90–6.37
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.173.266.42safe1.73–4.601.70–4.813.43–9.41safer1.34–4.991.28–5.242.62–10.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.34–2.27 0.09–2.52 | 1.37 0.51–2.22 0.29–2.45 | 2.67 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.75 2.89–6.61 2.40–7.10 | 4.67 2.93–6.41 2.46–6.88 | 9.42 5.81–13.03 4.86–13.98 | 44% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 14.72 10.80–18.65 9.71–19.74 | 13.34 9.78–16.91 8.82–17.87 | 28.07 20.58–35.55 18.53–37.60 | 57% 36% |
| Shots in box | 9.18 6.24–12.12 5.41–12.95 | 8.53 5.85–11.21 5.11–11.95 | 17.71 12.09–23.33 10.52–24.90 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 1.95–5.72 1.41–6.26 | 2.96 1.31–4.62 0.82–5.11 | 6.80 3.26–10.33 2.23–11.37 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.20 2.99–7.42 2.42–7.99 | 5.00 3.00–7.00 2.47–7.54 | 10.21 5.99–14.42 4.89–15.53 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 48.67 41.88–55.46 40.21–57.13 | 51.78 44.99–58.56 43.32–60.24 | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 410 343–477 324–495 | 424 358–491 340–508 | 834 701–968 665–1004 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.71 61.68–69.74 60.39–71.03 | 70.39 66.06–74.71 64.75–76.02 | — | 25% 70% |
| Fouls | 10.43 7.59–13.26 6.83–14.02 | 13.77 10.83–16.72 10.08–17.47 | 24.20 18.42–29.98 16.91–31.48 | 22% 72% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.90 | 1.36 0.27–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 2.80 0.54–5.05 0.00–5.64 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.21–2.84 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 3.64 1.46–5.82 0.90–6.37 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.17 1.73–4.60 1.34–4.99 | 3.26 1.70–4.81 1.28–5.24 | 6.42 3.43–9.41 2.62–10.23 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.