Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.463.06safe0.63–2.570.61–2.321.24–4.88safer0.38–2.820.38–2.540.76–5.36
Shots on target
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.104.759.85safe3.24–6.963.01–6.496.25–13.46safer2.75–7.452.54–6.965.29–14.41
Total shots
65%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5012.9928.49safe11.58–19.439.42–16.5521.00–35.98safer10.49–20.528.46–17.5118.95–38.03
Shots in box
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction10.009.0819.08safe7.06–12.946.40–11.7613.46–24.70safer6.23–13.775.66–12.5011.89–26.27
Blocked shots
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.154.028.17safe2.27–6.032.37–5.674.64–11.71safer1.73–6.581.88–6.173.60–12.74
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.144.809.94safe2.93–7.362.80–6.805.73–14.16safer2.36–7.932.27–7.334.62–15.26
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.5554.31safe39.76–53.3447.52–61.09safer38.09–55.0145.85–62.76
Passes
22%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction429519948safe362–496453–586815–1082safer343–514435–603779–1118
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction71.4477.89safe67.41–75.4773.57–82.22safer66.12–76.7672.26–83.53
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1310.3020.43safe7.29–12.977.36–13.2414.65–26.21safer6.54–13.726.61–13.9913.14–27.72
Offsides
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.034.02safe0.84–3.160.93–3.121.77–6.28safer0.53–3.460.65–3.411.18–6.87
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.753.26safe0.47–2.570.62–2.871.08–5.44safer0.20–2.830.32–3.170.53–6.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.256.33safe1.64–4.521.70–4.813.34–9.33safer1.26–4.901.27–5.232.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.63–2.57 0.38–2.82 | 1.46 0.61–2.32 0.38–2.54 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.76–5.36 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.10 3.24–6.96 2.75–7.45 | 4.75 3.01–6.49 2.54–6.96 | 9.85 6.25–13.46 5.29–14.41 | 48% 39% |
| Total shots | 15.50 11.58–19.43 10.49–20.52 | 12.99 9.42–16.55 8.46–17.51 | 28.49 21.00–35.98 18.95–38.03 | 65% 29% |
| Shots in box | 10.00 7.06–12.94 6.23–13.77 | 9.08 6.40–11.76 5.66–12.50 | 19.08 13.46–24.70 11.89–26.27 | 54% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 4.15 2.27–6.03 1.73–6.58 | 4.02 2.37–5.67 1.88–6.17 | 8.17 4.64–11.71 3.60–12.74 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Corners | 5.14 2.93–7.36 2.36–7.93 | 4.80 2.80–6.80 2.27–7.33 | 9.94 5.73–14.16 4.62–15.26 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 46.55 39.76–53.34 38.09–55.01 | 54.31 47.52–61.09 45.85–62.76 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 429 362–496 343–514 | 519 453–586 435–603 | 948 815–1082 779–1118 | 22% 77% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.44 67.41–75.47 66.12–76.76 | 77.89 73.57–82.22 72.26–83.53 | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 10.13 7.29–12.97 6.54–13.72 | 10.30 7.36–13.24 6.61–13.99 | 20.43 14.65–26.21 13.14–27.72 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.53–3.46 | 2.03 0.93–3.12 0.65–3.41 | 4.02 1.77–6.28 1.18–6.87 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.57 0.20–2.83 | 1.75 0.62–2.87 0.32–3.17 | 3.26 1.08–5.44 0.53–6.00 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.64–4.52 1.26–4.90 | 3.25 1.70–4.81 1.27–5.23 | 6.33 3.34–9.33 2.53–10.14 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.