Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
22%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.333.35safe1.05–2.980.48–2.191.52–5.17safer0.79–3.230.25–2.411.04–5.65
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.954.3610.31safe4.09–7.812.62–6.116.71–13.92safer3.60–8.302.16–6.575.75–14.87
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2011.7327.93safe12.27–20.128.17–15.2920.44–35.42safer11.18–21.217.21–16.2518.39–37.47
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.797.6218.40safe7.84–13.734.94–10.3012.78–24.03safer7.02–14.564.20–11.0411.21–25.59
Blocked shots
56%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.553.588.13safe2.67–6.431.93–5.234.60–11.67safer2.13–6.981.43–5.723.56–12.70
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.003.959.95safe3.79–8.221.95–5.955.74–14.17safer3.22–8.791.42–6.484.63–15.28
Possession %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction57.7542.93safe50.96–64.5436.14–49.71safer49.29–66.2134.47–51.38
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction562403964safe495–629336–469831–1098safer476–647319–487795–1134
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction75.5773.96safe71.54–79.6069.63–78.28safer70.25–80.8968.32–79.59
Fouls
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction9.2810.6219.89safe6.44–12.117.67–13.5614.11–25.67safer5.68–12.876.92–14.3112.60–27.18
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.633.60safe0.81–3.130.54–2.721.35–5.85safer0.51–3.430.25–3.010.76–6.44
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.973.44safe0.43–2.530.84–3.101.27–5.62safer0.16–2.790.55–3.390.71–6.18
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.130.18safe0.00–0.210.00–0.310.00–0.53safer0.00–0.360.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.686.51safe1.40–4.272.12–5.243.52–9.50safer1.01–4.661.70–5.662.71–10.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.01 1.05–2.98 0.79–3.23 | 1.33 0.48–2.19 0.25–2.41 | 3.35 1.52–5.17 1.04–5.65 | 53% 22% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.95 4.09–7.81 3.60–8.30 | 4.36 2.62–6.11 2.16–6.57 | 10.31 6.71–13.92 5.75–14.87 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.20 12.27–20.12 11.18–21.21 | 11.73 8.17–15.29 7.21–16.25 | 27.93 20.44–35.42 18.39–37.47 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.79 7.84–13.73 7.02–14.56 | 7.62 4.94–10.30 4.20–11.04 | 18.40 12.78–24.03 11.21–25.59 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.55 2.67–6.43 2.13–6.98 | 3.58 1.93–5.23 1.43–5.72 | 8.13 4.60–11.67 3.56–12.70 | 56% 13% 30% |
| Corners | 6.00 3.79–8.22 3.22–8.79 | 3.95 1.95–5.95 1.42–6.48 | 9.95 5.74–14.17 4.63–15.28 | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 57.75 50.96–64.54 49.29–66.21 | 42.93 36.14–49.71 34.47–51.38 | — | 79% 17% |
| Passes | 562 495–629 476–647 | 403 336–469 319–487 | 964 831–1098 795–1134 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.57 71.54–79.60 70.25–80.89 | 73.96 69.63–78.28 68.32–79.59 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 9.28 6.44–12.11 5.68–12.87 | 10.62 7.67–13.56 6.92–14.31 | 19.89 14.11–25.67 12.60–27.18 | 34% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.63 0.54–2.72 0.25–3.01 | 3.60 1.35–5.85 0.76–6.44 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 0.43–2.53 0.16–2.79 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 3.44 1.27–5.62 0.71–6.18 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 3.68 2.12–5.24 1.70–5.66 | 6.51 3.52–9.50 2.71–10.32 | 30% 15% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.