Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.283.00safe0.76–2.690.42–2.131.18–4.83safer0.51–2.940.20–2.360.70–5.31
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.343.839.17safe3.47–7.202.09–5.575.56–12.77safer2.98–7.691.62–6.044.61–13.73
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7111.3427.05safe11.79–19.647.78–14.9019.56–34.54safer10.70–20.736.82–15.8617.51–36.59
Shots in box
67%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction10.508.1218.62safe7.56–13.445.44–10.8013.00–24.24safer6.73–14.274.70–11.5411.43–25.81
Blocked shots
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.803.528.32safe2.92–6.681.87–5.184.78–11.86safer2.37–7.221.38–5.673.75–12.89
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.844.7610.60safe3.62–8.052.76–6.766.38–14.81safer3.05–8.622.23–7.295.28–15.92
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction55.9143.42safe49.12–62.7036.64–50.21safer47.45–64.3734.97–51.88
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction485384869safe418–552317–450735–1002safer399–570300–468699–1038
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction68.3668.80safe64.33–72.3964.48–73.13safer63.04–73.6863.17–74.44
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction9.0811.8520.93safe6.24–11.928.90–14.7915.15–26.71safer5.49–12.688.16–15.5413.64–28.22
Offsides
48%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.172.81safe0.48–2.800.08–2.260.56–5.06safer0.18–3.100.00–2.550.00–5.65
Yellow cards
25%
25%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.622.70safe0.03–2.120.49–2.750.52–4.87safer0.00–2.390.20–3.040.00–5.43
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.666.32safe1.22–4.102.11–5.223.33–9.31safer0.84–4.481.68–5.642.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 0.76–2.69 0.51–2.94 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.20–2.36 | 3.00 1.18–4.83 0.70–5.31 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.34 3.47–7.20 2.98–7.69 | 3.83 2.09–5.57 1.62–6.04 | 9.17 5.56–12.77 4.61–13.73 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 15.71 11.79–19.64 10.70–20.73 | 11.34 7.78–14.90 6.82–15.86 | 27.05 19.56–34.54 17.51–36.59 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.50 7.56–13.44 6.73–14.27 | 8.12 5.44–10.80 4.70–11.54 | 18.62 13.00–24.24 11.43–25.81 | 67% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 4.80 2.92–6.68 2.37–7.22 | 3.52 1.87–5.18 1.38–5.67 | 8.32 4.78–11.86 3.75–12.89 | 60% 27% |
| Corners | 5.84 3.62–8.05 3.05–8.62 | 4.76 2.76–6.76 2.23–7.29 | 10.60 6.38–14.81 5.28–15.92 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 55.91 49.12–62.70 47.45–64.37 | 43.42 36.64–50.21 34.97–51.88 | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 485 418–552 399–570 | 384 317–450 300–468 | 869 735–1002 699–1038 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.36 64.33–72.39 63.04–73.68 | 68.80 64.48–73.13 63.17–74.44 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 9.08 6.24–11.92 5.49–12.68 | 11.85 8.90–14.79 8.16–15.54 | 20.93 15.15–26.71 13.64–28.22 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.17 0.08–2.26 0.00–2.55 | 2.81 0.56–5.06 0.00–5.65 | 48% 24% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.07 0.03–2.12 0.00–2.39 | 1.62 0.49–2.75 0.20–3.04 | 2.70 0.52–4.87 0.00–5.43 | 25% 25% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.22–4.10 0.84–4.48 | 3.66 2.11–5.22 1.68–5.64 | 6.32 3.33–9.31 2.52–10.13 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.