Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: François Letexier · France
Goals
31%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.412.59safe0.22–2.140.55–2.270.77–4.42safer0.00–2.400.31–2.520.26–4.92actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.794.167.95safe1.93–5.642.46–5.874.39–11.52safer1.43–6.141.99–6.343.42–12.48actual7.004.0011.00
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1511.4923.64safe8.44–15.858.11–14.8716.56–30.72safer7.41–16.887.18–15.8014.59–32.68actual11.0012.0023.00
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction7.357.2714.61safe4.83–9.864.96–9.579.79–19.43safer3.96–10.734.17–10.368.13–21.09actual11.007.0018.00
Blocked shots
51%
17%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.122.525.63safe1.53–4.701.10–3.932.64–8.63safer1.00–5.240.61–4.421.61–9.65actual1.003.004.00
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.334.6910.02safe3.13–7.542.71–6.665.83–14.20safer2.53–8.132.17–7.204.70–15.33actual3.008.0011.00
Possession %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction46.0852.73safe39.76–52.3946.41–59.05safer38.16–53.9944.81–60.65actual32.0068.00
Passes
34%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction431478909safe365–496414–543779–1039safer348–514396–560744–1074actual302695997
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction81.4283.40safe77.21–85.6478.89–87.90safer75.91–86.9477.56–89.23
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2910.9921.28safe7.43–13.158.05–13.9415.48–27.08safer6.55–14.037.13–14.8513.67–28.88actual9.007.0016.00
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.713.37safe0.44–2.860.55–2.880.99–5.74safer0.10–3.210.22–3.210.32–6.42actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.973.77safe0.74–2.850.85–3.091.60–5.95safer0.47–3.130.56–3.381.03–6.51actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.652.555.20safe1.24–4.060.99–4.102.23–8.17safer0.85–4.450.56–4.531.41–8.99actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 1.00 | 1.41 0.55–2.27 0.31–2.52 | 0.00 | 2.59 0.77–4.42 0.26–4.92 | 1.00 | 31% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.79 1.93–5.64 1.43–6.14 | 7.00 | 4.16 2.46–5.87 1.99–6.34 | 4.00 | 7.95 4.39–11.52 3.42–12.48 | 11.00 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.15 8.44–15.85 7.41–16.88 | 11.00 | 11.49 8.11–14.87 7.18–15.80 | 12.00 | 23.64 16.56–30.72 14.59–32.68 | 23.00 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 7.35 4.83–9.86 3.96–10.73 | 11.00 | 7.27 4.96–9.57 4.17–10.36 | 7.00 | 14.61 9.79–19.43 8.13–21.09 | 18.00 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.53–4.70 1.00–5.24 | 1.00 | 2.52 1.10–3.93 0.61–4.42 | 3.00 | 5.63 2.64–8.63 1.61–9.65 | 4.00 | 51% 17% 32% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.13–7.54 2.53–8.13 | 3.00 | 4.69 2.71–6.66 2.17–7.20 | 8.00 | 10.02 5.83–14.20 4.70–15.33 | 11.00 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 46.08 39.76–52.39 38.16–53.99 | 32.00 | 52.73 46.41–59.05 44.81–60.65 | 68.00 | — | — | 31% 64% |
| Passes | 431 365–496 348–514 | 302 | 478 414–543 396–560 | 695 | 909 779–1039 744–1074 | 997 | 34% 66% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.42 77.21–85.64 75.91–86.94 | — | 83.40 78.89–87.90 77.56–89.23 | — | — | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 10.29 7.43–13.15 6.55–14.03 | 9.00 | 10.99 8.05–13.94 7.13–14.85 | 7.00 | 21.28 15.48–27.08 13.67–28.88 | 16.00 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.44–2.86 0.10–3.21 | 0.00 | 1.71 0.55–2.88 0.22–3.21 | 3.00 | 3.37 0.99–5.74 0.32–6.42 | 3.00 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.74–2.85 0.47–3.13 | 1.00 | 1.97 0.85–3.09 0.56–3.38 | 1.00 | 3.77 1.60–5.95 1.03–6.51 | 2.00 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.24–4.06 0.85–4.45 | 4.00 | 2.55 0.99–4.10 0.56–4.53 | 4.00 | 5.20 2.23–8.17 1.41–8.99 | 8.00 | 43% 18% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.