Ligue 1·Regular Season - 4·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Willy Delajod · France
Goals
14%
17%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.062.523.58safe0.10–2.021.66–3.381.75–5.40safer0.00–2.281.41–3.621.25–5.91actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction3.426.579.99safe1.56–5.284.86–8.286.43–13.56safer1.07–5.784.40–8.755.46–14.52actual4.007.0011.00
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2616.4826.74safe6.56–13.9613.10–19.8619.66–33.82safer5.53–15.0012.17–20.7917.70–35.78actual16.0015.0031.00
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.5811.8118.39safe4.07–9.109.50–14.1113.57–23.21safer3.20–9.978.71–14.9011.91–24.87actual8.009.0017.00
Blocked shots
24%
14%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.916.56safe1.07–4.242.49–5.323.56–9.56safer0.53–4.772.01–5.812.54–10.58actual4.004.008.00
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction3.136.9010.02safe0.92–5.334.92–8.875.84–14.21safer0.33–5.934.38–9.414.71–15.34actual3.002.005.00
Possession %
100%
homeawayprediction28.7771.89safe22.45–35.0965.57–78.21safer20.86–36.6863.97–79.81actual41.0059.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction3046971000safe238–369632–761870–1130safer221–387614–779835–1165actual4286521080
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction73.3185.36safe69.10–77.5380.86–89.87safer67.80–78.8379.52–91.20
Fouls
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction12.269.6221.88safe9.40–15.116.68–12.5716.07–27.68safer8.51–16.005.76–13.4814.27–29.48actual13.007.0020.00
Offsides
49%
18%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.632.144.77safe1.42–3.840.98–3.312.40–7.14safer1.07–4.180.65–3.641.72–7.82actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
44%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.383.04safe0.61–2.720.26–2.500.87–5.22safer0.34–3.000.00–2.790.31–5.78actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
69%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.212.446.65safe2.80–5.630.88–3.993.68–9.62safer2.41–6.010.45–4.422.86–10.44actual6.005.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 0.10–2.02 0.00–2.28 | 0.00 | 2.52 1.66–3.38 1.41–3.62 | 1.00 | 3.58 1.75–5.40 1.25–5.91 | 1.00 | 14% 17% 69% |
| Shots on target | 3.42 1.56–5.28 1.07–5.78 | 4.00 | 6.57 4.86–8.28 4.40–8.75 | 7.00 | 9.99 6.43–13.56 5.46–14.52 | 11.00 | 80% |
| Total shots | 10.26 6.56–13.96 5.53–15.00 | 16.00 | 16.48 13.10–19.86 12.17–20.79 | 15.00 | 26.74 19.66–33.82 17.70–35.78 | 31.00 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 6.58 4.07–9.10 3.20–9.97 | 8.00 | 11.81 9.50–14.11 8.71–14.90 | 9.00 | 18.39 13.57–23.21 11.91–24.87 | 17.00 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 2.65 1.07–4.24 0.53–4.77 | 4.00 | 3.91 2.49–5.32 2.01–5.81 | 4.00 | 6.56 3.56–9.56 2.54–10.58 | 8.00 | 24% 14% 61% |
| Corners | 3.13 0.92–5.33 0.33–5.93 | 3.00 | 6.90 4.92–8.87 4.38–9.41 | 2.00 | 10.02 5.84–14.21 4.71–15.34 | 5.00 | 85% |
| Possession % | 28.77 22.45–35.09 20.86–36.68 | 41.00 | 71.89 65.57–78.21 63.97–79.81 | 59.00 | — | — | 100% |
| Passes | 304 238–369 221–387 | 428 | 697 632–761 614–779 | 652 | 1000 870–1130 835–1165 | 1080 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.31 69.10–77.53 67.80–78.83 | — | 85.36 80.86–89.87 79.52–91.20 | — | — | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 12.26 9.40–15.11 8.51–16.00 | 13.00 | 9.62 6.68–12.57 5.76–13.48 | 7.00 | 21.88 16.07–27.68 14.27–29.48 | 20.00 | 68% 25% |
| Offsides | 2.63 1.42–3.84 1.07–4.18 | 3.00 | 2.14 0.98–3.31 0.65–3.64 | 1.00 | 4.77 2.40–7.14 1.72–7.82 | 4.00 | 49% 18% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.61–2.72 0.34–3.00 | 1.00 | 1.38 0.26–2.50 0.00–2.79 | 2.00 | 3.04 0.87–5.22 0.31–5.78 | 3.00 | 44% 24% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 4.21 2.80–5.63 2.41–6.01 | 6.00 | 2.44 0.88–3.99 0.45–4.42 | 5.00 | 6.65 3.68–9.62 2.86–10.44 | 11.00 | 69% 18% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.