Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ruddy Buquet · France
Goals
50%
24%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.122.80safe0.72–2.640.26–1.980.98–4.62safer0.46–2.900.02–2.230.47–5.13actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.734.3710.10safe3.87–7.582.66–6.086.53–13.66safer3.37–8.082.19–6.545.57–14.63actual6.001.007.00
Total shots
76%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2012.0128.21safe12.50–19.918.63–15.3921.13–35.30safer11.47–20.947.70–16.3219.17–37.26actual15.009.0024.00
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.767.6017.36safe7.24–12.275.30–9.9012.54–22.18safer6.38–13.144.51–10.7010.88–23.84actual9.005.0014.00
Blocked shots
51%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.447.42safe2.40–5.572.02–4.854.43–10.42safer1.87–6.111.54–5.343.41–11.44actual4.004.008.00
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.964.6210.58safe3.76–8.172.64–6.596.40–14.76safer3.16–8.762.10–7.135.26–15.90actual4.006.0010.00
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.7149.97safe44.39–57.0343.65–56.29safer42.80–58.6242.05–57.89actual46.0054.00
Passes
62%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction429392820safe363–494327–456690–950safer346–512310–474655–986actual379449828
Pass accuracy %
76%
21%
homeawayprediction79.6573.55safe75.43–83.8669.04–78.06safer74.13–85.1667.71–79.39
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9012.7824.67safe9.04–14.769.83–15.7218.87–30.48safer8.16–15.648.91–16.6417.07–32.28actual15.0013.0028.00
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.483.28safe0.59–3.010.32–2.640.90–5.65safer0.24–3.350.00–2.970.23–6.32actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
33%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.324.25safe0.87–2.981.20–3.442.07–6.42safer0.60–3.250.91–3.731.51–6.98actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
35%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.205.99safe1.37–4.201.65–4.753.02–8.96safer0.98–4.591.21–5.192.20–9.78actual1.006.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.72–2.64 0.46–2.90 | 0.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 0.00 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.47–5.13 | 0.00 | 50% 24% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.73 3.87–7.58 3.37–8.08 | 6.00 | 4.37 2.66–6.08 2.19–6.54 | 1.00 | 10.10 6.53–13.66 5.57–14.63 | 7.00 | 61% 28% |
| Total shots | 16.20 12.50–19.91 11.47–20.94 | 15.00 | 12.01 8.63–15.39 7.70–16.32 | 9.00 | 28.21 21.13–35.30 19.17–37.26 | 24.00 | 76% 19% |
| Shots in box | 9.76 7.24–12.27 6.38–13.14 | 9.00 | 7.60 5.30–9.90 4.51–10.70 | 5.00 | 17.36 12.54–22.18 10.88–23.84 | 14.00 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.40–5.57 1.87–6.11 | 4.00 | 3.44 2.02–4.85 1.54–5.34 | 4.00 | 7.42 4.43–10.42 3.41–11.44 | 8.00 | 51% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.96 3.76–8.17 3.16–8.76 | 4.00 | 4.62 2.64–6.59 2.10–7.13 | 6.00 | 10.58 6.40–14.76 5.26–15.90 | 10.00 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 50.71 44.39–57.03 42.80–58.62 | 46.00 | 49.97 43.65–56.29 42.05–57.89 | 54.00 | — | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 429 363–494 346–512 | 379 | 392 327–456 310–474 | 449 | 820 690–950 655–986 | 828 | 62% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.65 75.43–83.86 74.13–85.16 | — | 73.55 69.04–78.06 67.71–79.39 | — | — | — | 76% 21% |
| Fouls | 11.90 9.04–14.76 8.16–15.64 | 15.00 | 12.78 9.83–15.72 8.91–16.64 | 13.00 | 24.67 18.87–30.48 17.07–32.28 | 28.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.59–3.01 0.24–3.35 | 1.00 | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.00–2.97 | 0.00 | 3.28 0.90–5.65 0.23–6.32 | 1.00 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.87–2.98 0.60–3.25 | 1.00 | 2.32 1.20–3.44 0.91–3.73 | 1.00 | 4.25 2.07–6.42 1.51–6.98 | 2.00 | 33% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.37–4.20 0.98–4.59 | 1.00 | 3.20 1.65–4.75 1.21–5.19 | 6.00 | 5.99 3.02–8.96 2.20–9.78 | 7.00 | 35% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+