Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.362.86safe0.54–2.480.50–2.211.04–4.69safer0.29–2.730.27–2.440.56–5.17
Shots on target
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.724.359.07safe2.86–6.582.61–6.095.46–12.67safer2.37–7.072.14–6.564.51–13.63
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1712.7326.90safe10.25–18.109.17–16.2919.41–34.39safer9.16–19.198.21–17.2517.36–36.44
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.898.4817.37safe5.95–11.835.80–11.1611.75–22.99safer5.12–12.665.06–11.9010.18–24.56
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.263.647.91safe2.38–6.151.99–5.304.37–11.44safer1.84–6.691.50–5.793.34–12.48
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.574.7510.33safe3.36–7.792.75–6.756.12–14.54safer2.79–8.362.22–7.295.01–15.65
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction54.0946.74safe47.30–60.8839.96–53.53safer45.63–62.5538.28–55.20
Passes
73%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction469394863safe402–537327–460730–997safer384–555310–478694–1033
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction69.0269.59safe64.99–73.0565.27–73.92safer63.70–74.3463.96–75.22
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3114.6526.96safe9.47–15.1511.71–17.6021.18–32.74safer8.72–15.9010.96–18.3519.68–34.25
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.943.80safe0.70–3.020.85–3.031.54–6.05safer0.40–3.320.56–3.320.95–6.64
Yellow cards
29%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.243.93safe0.64–2.741.11–3.371.75–6.11safer0.38–3.010.82–3.661.20–6.67
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.116.14safe1.60–4.471.55–4.663.15–9.14safer1.21–4.861.13–5.092.34–9.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.54–2.48 0.29–2.73 | 1.36 0.50–2.21 0.27–2.44 | 2.86 1.04–4.69 0.56–5.17 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.86–6.58 2.37–7.07 | 4.35 2.61–6.09 2.14–6.56 | 9.07 5.46–12.67 4.51–13.63 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.17 10.25–18.10 9.16–19.19 | 12.73 9.17–16.29 8.21–17.25 | 26.90 19.41–34.39 17.36–36.44 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.89 5.95–11.83 5.12–12.66 | 8.48 5.80–11.16 5.06–11.90 | 17.37 11.75–22.99 10.18–24.56 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 4.26 2.38–6.15 1.84–6.69 | 3.64 1.99–5.30 1.50–5.79 | 7.91 4.37–11.44 3.34–12.48 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.36–7.79 2.79–8.36 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.22–7.29 | 10.33 6.12–14.54 5.01–15.65 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 54.09 47.30–60.88 45.63–62.55 | 46.74 39.96–53.53 38.28–55.20 | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 469 402–537 384–555 | 394 327–460 310–478 | 863 730–997 694–1033 | 73% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.02 64.99–73.05 63.70–74.34 | 69.59 65.27–73.92 63.96–75.22 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 12.31 9.47–15.15 8.72–15.90 | 14.65 11.71–17.60 10.96–18.35 | 26.96 21.18–32.74 19.68–34.25 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.32 | 1.94 0.85–3.03 0.56–3.32 | 3.80 1.54–6.05 0.95–6.64 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.38–3.01 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 3.93 1.75–6.11 1.20–6.67 | 29% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.60–4.47 1.21–4.86 | 3.11 1.55–4.66 1.13–5.09 | 6.14 3.15–9.14 2.34–9.95 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.