Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj · France
Goals
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.352.243.59safe0.39–2.321.38–3.101.77–5.41safer0.13–2.581.13–3.341.26–5.92actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
31%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.755.8910.65safe2.90–6.614.18–7.607.08–14.21safer2.40–7.113.72–8.076.11–15.18actual5.006.0011.00
Total shots
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2215.3728.60safe9.52–16.9312.00–18.7521.52–35.68safer8.49–17.9611.07–19.6819.56–37.64actual13.0016.0029.00
Shots in box
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction7.9710.5518.52safe5.46–10.498.25–12.8513.71–23.34safer4.59–11.357.45–13.6512.04–25.00actual11.0012.0023.00
Blocked shots
24%
13%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.984.397.37safe1.40–4.562.98–5.814.37–10.37safer0.86–5.102.49–6.293.35–11.39actual3.004.007.00
Corners
32%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction5.026.1111.12safe2.81–7.224.13–8.086.94–15.31safer2.22–7.823.59–8.625.81–16.44actual3.009.0012.00
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.4554.59safe39.13–51.7748.27–60.91safer37.54–53.3646.68–62.51actual53.0047.00
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction402472874safe337–468408–537745–1004safer319–485390–554709–1040actual484432916
Pass accuracy %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction73.8976.54safe69.67–78.1072.04–81.05safer68.37–79.4070.71–82.38
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1211.4922.61safe8.26–13.988.54–14.4316.80–28.41safer7.38–14.867.62–15.3515.00–30.21actual17.0011.0028.00
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.923.64safe0.50–2.920.76–3.091.26–6.01safer0.16–3.270.43–3.420.59–6.69actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.023.94safe0.87–2.980.90–3.141.77–6.12safer0.59–3.250.61–3.431.20–6.68actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.450.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.143.277.40safe2.72–5.551.71–4.824.43–10.37safer2.33–5.941.28–5.253.61–11.19actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.39–2.32 0.13–2.58 | 2.00 | 2.24 1.38–3.10 1.13–3.34 | 2.00 | 3.59 1.77–5.41 1.26–5.92 | 4.00 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Shots on target | 4.75 2.90–6.61 2.40–7.11 | 5.00 | 5.89 4.18–7.60 3.72–8.07 | 6.00 | 10.65 7.08–14.21 6.11–15.18 | 11.00 | 31% 58% |
| Total shots | 13.22 9.52–16.93 8.49–17.96 | 13.00 | 15.37 12.00–18.75 11.07–19.68 | 16.00 | 28.60 21.52–35.68 19.56–37.64 | 29.00 | 31% 62% |
| Shots in box | 7.97 5.46–10.49 4.59–11.35 | 11.00 | 10.55 8.25–12.85 7.45–13.65 | 12.00 | 18.52 13.71–23.34 12.04–25.00 | 23.00 | 24% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 2.98 1.40–4.56 0.86–5.10 | 3.00 | 4.39 2.98–5.81 2.49–6.29 | 4.00 | 7.37 4.37–10.37 3.35–11.39 | 7.00 | 24% 13% 63% |
| Corners | 5.02 2.81–7.22 2.22–7.82 | 3.00 | 6.11 4.13–8.08 3.59–8.62 | 9.00 | 11.12 6.94–15.31 5.81–16.44 | 12.00 | 32% 57% |
| Possession % | 45.45 39.13–51.77 37.54–53.36 | 53.00 | 54.59 48.27–60.91 46.68–62.51 | 47.00 | — | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 402 337–468 319–485 | 484 | 472 408–537 390–554 | 432 | 874 745–1004 709–1040 | 916 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.89 69.67–78.10 68.37–79.40 | — | 76.54 72.04–81.05 70.71–82.38 | — | — | — | 35% 61% |
| Fouls | 11.12 8.26–13.98 7.38–14.86 | 17.00 | 11.49 8.54–14.43 7.62–15.35 | 11.00 | 22.61 16.80–28.41 15.00–30.21 | 28.00 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.50–2.92 0.16–3.27 | 1.00 | 1.92 0.76–3.09 0.43–3.42 | 3.00 | 3.64 1.26–6.01 0.59–6.69 | 4.00 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.98 0.59–3.25 | 2.00 | 2.02 0.90–3.14 0.61–3.43 | 3.00 | 3.94 1.77–6.12 1.20–6.68 | 5.00 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 4.14 2.72–5.55 2.33–5.94 | 4.00 | 3.27 1.71–4.82 1.28–5.25 | 3.00 | 7.40 4.43–10.37 3.61–11.19 | 7.00 | 55% 14% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+