Ligue 1·Regular Season - 4·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Romain Lissorgue · France
Goals
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.270.833.10safe1.30–3.230.00–1.691.28–4.92safer1.04–3.490.00–1.940.77–5.43actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.713.719.41safe3.85–7.562.00–5.425.85–12.98safer3.35–8.061.53–5.884.88–13.95actual6.001.007.00
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4111.7627.17safe11.71–19.128.38–15.1420.09–34.26safer10.68–20.157.45–16.0718.13–36.22actual13.008.0021.00
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction12.076.4818.55safe9.56–14.594.18–8.7813.73–23.37safer8.69–15.463.38–9.5812.07–25.03actual11.005.0016.00
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.552.707.25safe2.96–6.131.29–4.124.25–10.25safer2.43–6.670.80–4.603.23–11.27actual2.001.003.00
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.904.1410.05safe3.70–8.112.17–6.125.86–14.23safer3.10–8.701.63–6.664.73–15.36actual2.005.007.00
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction60.3539.45safe54.04–66.6733.13–45.76safer52.44–68.2731.53–47.36actual63.0037.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction563368931safe498–628304–433802–1061safer480–646286–451766–1097actual627340967
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction80.5274.92safe76.31–84.7470.41–79.42safer75.01–86.0469.08–80.75
Fouls
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3514.1224.47safe7.50–13.2111.18–17.0718.67–30.28safer6.61–14.0910.26–17.9916.87–32.08actual11.0020.0031.00
Offsides
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.323.01safe0.49–2.910.15–2.480.64–5.38safer0.14–3.250.00–2.810.00–6.06actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
24%
21%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.372.153.52safe0.31–2.421.03–3.271.34–5.70safer0.04–2.700.74–3.560.78–6.26actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
26%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.473.546.01safe1.06–3.881.98–5.093.04–8.98safer0.67–4.271.55–5.522.22–9.80actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.27 1.30–3.23 1.04–3.49 | 2.00 | 0.83 0.00–1.69 0.00–1.94 | 0.00 | 3.10 1.28–4.92 0.77–5.43 | 2.00 | 70% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.71 3.85–7.56 3.35–8.06 | 6.00 | 3.71 2.00–5.42 1.53–5.88 | 1.00 | 9.41 5.85–12.98 4.88–13.95 | 7.00 | 69% 21% |
| Total shots | 15.41 11.71–19.12 10.68–20.15 | 13.00 | 11.76 8.38–15.14 7.45–16.07 | 8.00 | 27.17 20.09–34.26 18.13–36.22 | 21.00 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 12.07 9.56–14.59 8.69–15.46 | 11.00 | 6.48 4.18–8.78 3.38–9.58 | 5.00 | 18.55 13.73–23.37 12.07–25.03 | 16.00 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 4.55 2.96–6.13 2.43–6.67 | 2.00 | 2.70 1.29–4.12 0.80–4.60 | 1.00 | 7.25 4.25–10.25 3.23–11.27 | 3.00 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 5.90 3.70–8.11 3.10–8.70 | 2.00 | 4.14 2.17–6.12 1.63–6.66 | 5.00 | 10.05 5.86–14.23 4.73–15.36 | 7.00 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 60.35 54.04–66.67 52.44–68.27 | 63.00 | 39.45 33.13–45.76 31.53–47.36 | 37.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Passes | 563 498–628 480–646 | 627 | 368 304–433 286–451 | 340 | 931 802–1061 766–1097 | 967 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.52 76.31–84.74 75.01–86.04 | — | 74.92 70.41–79.42 69.08–80.75 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 10.35 7.50–13.21 6.61–14.09 | 11.00 | 14.12 11.18–17.07 10.26–17.99 | 20.00 | 24.47 18.67–30.28 16.87–32.08 | 31.00 | 19% 75% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.49–2.91 0.14–3.25 | 3.00 | 1.32 0.15–2.48 0.00–2.81 | 2.00 | 3.01 0.64–5.38 0.00–6.06 | 5.00 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 0.31–2.42 0.04–2.70 | 1.00 | 2.15 1.03–3.27 0.74–3.56 | 0.00 | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.78–6.26 | 1.00 | 24% 21% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.47 1.06–3.88 0.67–4.27 | 1.00 | 3.54 1.98–5.09 1.55–5.52 | 4.00 | 6.01 3.04–8.98 2.22–9.80 | 5.00 | 26% 15% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+