Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Aurelien Petit · France
Goals
51%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.182.95safe0.81–2.730.32–2.041.13–4.77safer0.55–2.990.07–2.280.62–5.28actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.204.099.28safe3.34–7.052.38–5.795.72–12.85safer2.84–7.551.91–6.264.75–13.81actual3.004.007.00
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8112.3427.14safe11.10–18.518.96–15.7120.06–34.22safer10.07–19.548.03–16.6418.10–36.19actual10.0013.0023.00
Shots in box
60%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.807.2516.05safe6.29–11.324.95–9.5511.23–20.87safer5.42–12.184.15–10.359.57–22.53actual6.0013.0019.00
Blocked shots
51%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.633.046.67safe2.05–5.221.63–4.463.68–9.67safer1.51–5.751.14–4.942.65–10.69actual3.003.006.00
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.074.749.82safe2.87–7.282.76–6.725.63–14.00safer2.27–7.872.23–7.264.50–15.13actual4.003.007.00
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction54.6544.98safe48.33–60.9738.66–51.30safer46.73–62.5637.06–52.89actual41.0059.00
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction510420930safe445–575356–485801–1060safer427–593338–502765–1096actual4456571102
Pass accuracy %
84%
14%
homeawayprediction83.8075.46safe79.58–88.0270.95–79.97safer78.28–89.3269.62–81.30
Fouls
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3015.9726.27safe7.44–13.1613.02–18.9120.47–32.07safer6.56–14.0412.10–19.8318.66–33.87actual8.0018.0026.00
Offsides
35%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.472.82safe0.14–2.560.31–2.630.45–5.19safer0.00–2.900.00–2.960.00–5.87actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.422.273.68safe0.36–2.471.15–3.391.51–5.86safer0.09–2.750.86–3.680.95–6.42actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.19safe0.00–0.220.00–0.310.00–0.53safer0.00–0.370.00–0.460.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.316.10safe1.38–4.211.75–4.863.14–9.07safer0.99–4.601.32–5.292.31–9.89actual2.001.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.81–2.73 0.55–2.99 | 2.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.07–2.28 | 2.00 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.62–5.28 | 4.00 | 51% 23% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.20 3.34–7.05 2.84–7.55 | 3.00 | 4.09 2.38–5.79 1.91–6.26 | 4.00 | 9.28 5.72–12.85 4.75–13.81 | 7.00 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.81 11.10–18.51 10.07–19.54 | 10.00 | 12.34 8.96–15.71 8.03–16.64 | 13.00 | 27.14 20.06–34.22 18.10–36.19 | 23.00 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 8.80 6.29–11.32 5.42–12.18 | 6.00 | 7.25 4.95–9.55 4.15–10.35 | 13.00 | 16.05 11.23–20.87 9.57–22.53 | 19.00 | 60% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 2.05–5.22 1.51–5.75 | 3.00 | 3.04 1.63–4.46 1.14–4.94 | 3.00 | 6.67 3.68–9.67 2.65–10.69 | 6.00 | 51% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.07 2.87–7.28 2.27–7.87 | 4.00 | 4.74 2.76–6.72 2.23–7.26 | 3.00 | 9.82 5.63–14.00 4.50–15.13 | 7.00 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 54.65 48.33–60.97 46.73–62.56 | 41.00 | 44.98 38.66–51.30 37.06–52.89 | 59.00 | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 510 445–575 427–593 | 445 | 420 356–485 338–502 | 657 | 930 801–1060 765–1096 | 1102 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.80 79.58–88.02 78.28–89.32 | — | 75.46 70.95–79.97 69.62–81.30 | — | — | — | 84% 14% |
| Fouls | 10.30 7.44–13.16 6.56–14.04 | 8.00 | 15.97 13.02–18.91 12.10–19.83 | 18.00 | 26.27 20.47–32.07 18.66–33.87 | 26.00 | 84% |
| Offsides | 1.35 0.14–2.56 0.00–2.90 | 2.00 | 1.47 0.31–2.63 0.00–2.96 | 1.00 | 2.82 0.45–5.19 0.00–5.87 | 3.00 | 35% 25% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.42 0.36–2.47 0.09–2.75 | 1.00 | 2.27 1.15–3.39 0.86–3.68 | 0.00 | 3.68 1.51–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 1.00 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.38–4.21 0.99–4.60 | 2.00 | 3.31 1.75–4.86 1.32–5.29 | 1.00 | 6.10 3.14–9.07 2.31–9.89 | 3.00 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.