Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jérôme Brisard · France
Goals
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.332.77safe0.48–2.410.47–2.190.95–4.60safer0.22–2.670.22–2.430.44–5.10actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.764.178.93safe2.91–6.622.46–5.885.37–12.50safer2.41–7.121.99–6.354.40–13.46actual4.001.005.00
Total shots
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8112.5726.39safe10.11–17.529.20–15.9519.31–33.47safer9.08–18.558.26–16.8817.34–35.43actual6.005.0011.00
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.188.1116.29safe5.66–10.705.80–10.4111.47–21.10safer4.80–11.565.01–11.209.81–22.77actual3.003.006.00
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.443.707.14safe1.86–5.032.28–5.114.14–10.14safer1.33–5.561.80–5.603.12–11.16actual1.002.003.00
Corners
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.684.759.43safe2.47–6.882.77–6.735.24–13.61safer1.88–7.482.23–7.264.11–14.74actual4.003.007.00
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.4150.30safe43.09–55.7343.98–56.62safer41.49–57.3242.39–58.22actual56.0044.00
Passes
33%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction434485920safe369–500421–550790–1050safer351–517403–568755–1085actual5904591049
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction76.9183.18safe72.69–81.1278.67–87.68safer71.39–82.4277.34–89.01
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7910.4422.23safe8.93–14.647.49–13.3816.42–28.03safer8.04–15.536.58–14.3014.62–29.83actual19.0013.0032.00
Offsides
49%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.171.713.88safe0.96–3.380.55–2.881.51–6.25safer0.61–3.720.22–3.210.83–6.93actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.101.994.08safe1.04–3.150.87–3.111.91–6.26safer0.77–3.420.58–3.401.34–6.82actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
42%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.982.985.96safe1.56–4.391.43–4.542.99–8.93safer1.17–4.781.00–4.972.17–9.75actual0.004.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.41 0.22–2.67 | 0.00 | 1.33 0.47–2.19 0.22–2.43 | 0.00 | 2.77 0.95–4.60 0.44–5.10 | 0.00 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.76 2.91–6.62 2.41–7.12 | 4.00 | 4.17 2.46–5.88 1.99–6.35 | 1.00 | 8.93 5.37–12.50 4.40–13.46 | 5.00 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.81 10.11–17.52 9.08–18.55 | 6.00 | 12.57 9.20–15.95 8.26–16.88 | 5.00 | 26.39 19.31–33.47 17.34–35.43 | 11.00 | 56% 37% |
| Shots in box | 8.18 5.66–10.70 4.80–11.56 | 3.00 | 8.11 5.80–10.41 5.01–11.20 | 3.00 | 16.29 11.47–21.10 9.81–22.77 | 6.00 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.44 1.86–5.03 1.33–5.56 | 1.00 | 3.70 2.28–5.11 1.80–5.60 | 2.00 | 7.14 4.14–10.14 3.12–11.16 | 3.00 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 4.68 2.47–6.88 1.88–7.48 | 4.00 | 4.75 2.77–6.73 2.23–7.26 | 3.00 | 9.43 5.24–13.61 4.11–14.74 | 7.00 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 49.41 43.09–55.73 41.49–57.32 | 56.00 | 50.30 43.98–56.62 42.39–58.22 | 44.00 | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 434 369–500 351–517 | 590 | 485 421–550 403–568 | 459 | 920 790–1050 755–1085 | 1049 | 33% 67% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.91 72.69–81.12 71.39–82.42 | — | 83.18 78.67–87.68 77.34–89.01 | — | — | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 11.79 8.93–14.64 8.04–15.53 | 19.00 | 10.44 7.49–13.38 6.58–14.30 | 13.00 | 22.23 16.42–28.03 14.62–29.83 | 32.00 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 2.17 0.96–3.38 0.61–3.72 | 2.00 | 1.71 0.55–2.88 0.22–3.21 | 1.00 | 3.88 1.51–6.25 0.83–6.93 | 3.00 | 49% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 1.04–3.15 0.77–3.42 | 2.00 | 1.99 0.87–3.11 0.58–3.40 | 1.00 | 4.08 1.91–6.26 1.34–6.82 | 3.00 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.98 1.56–4.39 1.17–4.78 | 0.00 | 2.98 1.43–4.54 1.00–4.97 | 4.00 | 5.96 2.99–8.93 2.17–9.75 | 4.00 | 42% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+