Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.242.81safe0.60–2.540.39–2.100.99–4.63safer0.35–2.790.16–2.320.51–5.11
Shots on target
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.843.948.79safe2.98–6.712.20–5.685.18–12.39safer2.49–7.201.73–6.154.23–13.35
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4810.8325.31safe10.56–18.417.26–14.3917.82–32.80safer9.47–19.506.30–15.3515.77–34.85
Shots in box
71%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction9.626.8616.48safe6.68–12.564.18–9.5410.86–22.10safer5.85–13.393.44–10.289.29–23.67
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.002.776.77safe2.12–5.881.12–4.423.24–10.31safer1.57–6.430.63–4.922.20–11.34
Corners
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.463.879.33safe3.25–7.671.87–5.875.12–13.54safer2.67–8.251.34–6.404.01–14.65
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.7949.42safe44.00–57.5842.64–56.21safer42.33–59.2540.97–57.88
Passes
56%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction494474967safe426–561407–540834–1101safer408–579390–558798–1137
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction72.4974.64safe68.46–76.5270.32–78.97safer67.17–77.8169.01–80.28
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7212.8423.55safe7.88–13.559.89–15.7817.77–29.34safer7.12–14.319.15–16.5316.27–30.84
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.673.33safe0.50–2.820.58–2.761.08–5.59safer0.20–3.120.29–3.050.49–6.18
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.123.70safe0.53–2.630.99–3.251.53–5.88safer0.27–2.900.70–3.540.97–6.44
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
31%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.315.95safe1.21–4.081.75–4.862.96–8.95safer0.82–4.471.33–5.292.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.54 0.35–2.79 | 1.24 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.32 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.51–5.11 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.84 2.98–6.71 2.49–7.20 | 3.94 2.20–5.68 1.73–6.15 | 8.79 5.18–12.39 4.23–13.35 | 55% 13% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.48 10.56–18.41 9.47–19.50 | 10.83 7.26–14.39 6.30–15.35 | 25.31 17.82–32.80 15.77–34.85 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.62 6.68–12.56 5.85–13.39 | 6.86 4.18–9.54 3.44–10.28 | 16.48 10.86–22.10 9.29–23.67 | 71% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.00 2.12–5.88 1.57–6.43 | 2.77 1.12–4.42 0.63–4.92 | 6.77 3.24–10.31 2.20–11.34 | 61% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 5.46 3.25–7.67 2.67–8.25 | 3.87 1.87–5.87 1.34–6.40 | 9.33 5.12–13.54 4.01–14.65 | 64% 24% |
| Possession % | 50.79 44.00–57.58 42.33–59.25 | 49.42 42.64–56.21 40.97–57.88 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 494 426–561 408–579 | 474 407–540 390–558 | 967 834–1101 798–1137 | 56% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.49 68.46–76.52 67.17–77.81 | 74.64 70.32–78.97 69.01–80.28 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 10.72 7.88–13.55 7.12–14.31 | 12.84 9.89–15.78 9.15–16.53 | 23.55 17.77–29.34 16.27–30.84 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.67 0.58–2.76 0.29–3.05 | 3.33 1.08–5.59 0.49–6.18 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.27–2.90 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 3.70 1.53–5.88 0.97–6.44 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.21–4.08 0.82–4.47 | 3.31 1.75–4.86 1.33–5.29 | 5.95 2.96–8.95 2.15–9.76 | 31% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.