Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jeremy Stinat · France
Goals
35%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.783.37safe0.63–2.560.92–2.641.55–5.20safer0.37–2.820.67–2.891.04–5.70actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.254.569.81safe3.39–7.112.85–6.276.25–13.38safer2.90–7.612.39–6.745.28–14.34actual7.005.0012.00
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8512.2827.13safe11.14–18.558.90–15.6620.05–34.21safer10.11–19.587.97–16.5918.08–36.17actual20.0013.0033.00
Shots in box
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.398.1518.53safe7.87–12.905.84–10.4513.72–23.35safer7.01–13.775.05–11.2412.05–25.01actual13.008.0021.00
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.913.387.29safe2.33–5.501.97–4.804.29–10.29safer1.79–6.031.48–5.283.27–11.31actual7.001.008.00
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.574.9410.51safe3.36–7.782.97–6.926.33–14.70safer2.77–8.372.43–7.465.20–15.83actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction46.9552.46safe40.63–53.2746.14–58.78safer39.04–54.8744.54–60.37actual49.0051.00
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction439504943safe374–504439–568813–1073safer356–522422–586778–1108actual4965251021
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction70.4079.62safe66.19–74.6275.11–84.12safer64.88–75.9273.78–85.45
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3110.5922.89safe9.45–15.167.64–13.5317.09–28.70safer8.57–16.056.72–14.4515.29–30.50actual15.0013.0028.00
Offsides
41%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.833.76safe0.72–3.140.67–2.991.39–6.13safer0.38–3.480.33–3.320.71–6.81actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.182.154.33safe1.13–3.241.03–3.272.16–6.51safer0.85–3.510.74–3.561.59–7.07actual1.004.005.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.603.426.02safe1.18–4.011.87–4.983.05–8.99safer0.80–4.401.44–5.412.23–9.81actual5.006.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.63–2.56 0.37–2.82 | 1.00 | 1.78 0.92–2.64 0.67–2.89 | 0.00 | 3.37 1.55–5.20 1.04–5.70 | 1.00 | 35% 23% 43% |
| Shots on target | 5.25 3.39–7.11 2.90–7.61 | 7.00 | 4.56 2.85–6.27 2.39–6.74 | 5.00 | 9.81 6.25–13.38 5.28–14.34 | 12.00 | 52% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.85 11.14–18.55 10.11–19.58 | 20.00 | 12.28 8.90–15.66 7.97–16.59 | 13.00 | 27.13 20.05–34.21 18.08–36.17 | 33.00 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 10.39 7.87–12.90 7.01–13.77 | 13.00 | 8.15 5.84–10.45 5.05–11.24 | 8.00 | 18.53 13.72–23.35 12.05–25.01 | 21.00 | 66% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 2.33–5.50 1.79–6.03 | 7.00 | 3.38 1.97–4.80 1.48–5.28 | 1.00 | 7.29 4.29–10.29 3.27–11.31 | 8.00 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.36–7.78 2.77–8.37 | 3.00 | 4.94 2.97–6.92 2.43–7.46 | 5.00 | 10.51 6.33–14.70 5.20–15.83 | 8.00 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 46.95 40.63–53.27 39.04–54.87 | 49.00 | 52.46 46.14–58.78 44.54–60.37 | 51.00 | — | — | 34% 61% |
| Passes | 439 374–504 356–522 | 496 | 504 439–568 422–586 | 525 | 943 813–1073 778–1108 | 1021 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.40 66.19–74.62 64.88–75.92 | — | 79.62 75.11–84.12 73.78–85.45 | — | — | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 12.31 9.45–15.16 8.57–16.05 | 15.00 | 10.59 7.64–13.53 6.72–14.45 | 13.00 | 22.89 17.09–28.70 15.29–30.50 | 28.00 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.72–3.14 0.38–3.48 | 1.00 | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.33–3.32 | 1.00 | 3.76 1.39–6.13 0.71–6.81 | 2.00 | 41% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 1.13–3.24 0.85–3.51 | 1.00 | 2.15 1.03–3.27 0.74–3.56 | 4.00 | 4.33 2.16–6.51 1.59–7.07 | 5.00 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.18–4.01 0.80–4.40 | 5.00 | 3.42 1.87–4.98 1.44–5.41 | 6.00 | 6.02 3.05–8.99 2.23–9.81 | 11.00 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+