Ligue 1·Regular Season - 4·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Eric Wattellier · France
Goals
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.673.50safe0.87–2.790.81–2.531.68–5.32safer0.61–3.050.57–2.781.17–5.83actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.5210.32safe3.94–7.662.81–6.236.76–13.88safer3.45–8.162.34–6.705.79–14.85actual2.003.005.00
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8212.9627.78safe11.12–18.539.58–16.3420.70–34.87safer10.09–19.568.65–17.2718.74–36.83actual13.0012.0025.00
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.967.8217.78safe7.45–12.485.51–10.1212.96–22.60safer6.58–13.344.72–10.9111.30–24.26actual6.007.0013.00
Blocked shots
51%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.623.016.63safe2.04–5.211.60–4.433.63–9.63safer1.50–5.741.11–4.912.61–10.65actual3.003.006.00
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.344.589.92safe3.13–7.542.60–6.565.74–14.10safer2.54–8.142.07–7.104.60–15.23actual2.007.009.00
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.5648.40safe45.24–57.8742.08–54.72safer43.64–59.4740.49–56.32actual44.0056.00
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction485473958safe420–550408–538828–1088safer402–568391–555793–1123actual4415621003
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction84.0685.29safe79.84–88.2780.79–89.80safer78.54–89.5779.46–91.13
Fouls
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6712.0621.73safe6.81–12.529.12–15.0115.93–27.53safer5.93–13.418.20–15.9314.13–29.34actual9.0010.0019.00
Offsides
41%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.563.23safe0.47–2.890.39–2.720.86–5.61safer0.13–3.230.06–3.050.19–6.28actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
29%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.013.51safe0.45–2.560.89–3.131.34–5.69safer0.17–2.830.60–3.420.77–6.25actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
30%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.676.56safe1.47–4.302.12–5.233.59–9.53safer1.08–4.691.69–5.662.77–10.35actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.87–2.79 0.61–3.05 | 1.00 | 1.67 0.81–2.53 0.57–2.78 | 1.00 | 3.50 1.68–5.32 1.17–5.83 | 2.00 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Shots on target | 5.80 3.94–7.66 3.45–8.16 | 2.00 | 4.52 2.81–6.23 2.34–6.70 | 3.00 | 10.32 6.76–13.88 5.79–14.85 | 5.00 | 60% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.82 11.12–18.53 10.09–19.56 | 13.00 | 12.96 9.58–16.34 8.65–17.27 | 12.00 | 27.78 20.70–34.87 18.74–36.83 | 25.00 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.96 7.45–12.48 6.58–13.34 | 6.00 | 7.82 5.51–10.12 4.72–10.91 | 7.00 | 17.78 12.96–22.60 11.30–24.26 | 13.00 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 2.04–5.21 1.50–5.74 | 3.00 | 3.01 1.60–4.43 1.11–4.91 | 3.00 | 6.63 3.63–9.63 2.61–10.65 | 6.00 | 51% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.34 3.13–7.54 2.54–8.14 | 2.00 | 4.58 2.60–6.56 2.07–7.10 | 7.00 | 9.92 5.74–14.10 4.60–15.23 | 9.00 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 51.56 45.24–57.87 43.64–59.47 | 44.00 | 48.40 42.08–54.72 40.49–56.32 | 56.00 | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 485 420–550 402–568 | 441 | 473 408–538 391–555 | 562 | 958 828–1088 793–1123 | 1003 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.06 79.84–88.27 78.54–89.57 | — | 85.29 80.79–89.80 79.46–91.13 | — | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 9.67 6.81–12.52 5.93–13.41 | 9.00 | 12.06 9.12–15.01 8.20–15.93 | 10.00 | 21.73 15.93–27.53 14.13–29.34 | 19.00 | 27% 66% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.47–2.89 0.13–3.23 | 0.00 | 1.56 0.39–2.72 0.06–3.05 | 3.00 | 3.23 0.86–5.61 0.19–6.28 | 3.00 | 41% 23% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.56 0.17–2.83 | 1.00 | 2.01 0.89–3.13 0.60–3.42 | 1.00 | 3.51 1.34–5.69 0.77–6.25 | 2.00 | 29% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.47–4.30 1.08–4.69 | 2.00 | 3.67 2.12–5.23 1.69–5.66 | 2.00 | 6.56 3.59–9.53 2.77–10.35 | 4.00 | 30% 15% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.