Ligue 1·Regular Season - 5·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Azzedine Souifi · France
Goals
55%
24%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.730.972.70safe0.76–2.690.11–1.830.88–4.52safer0.50–2.950.00–2.080.37–5.03actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.333.859.17safe3.47–7.182.14–5.555.61–12.74safer2.97–7.681.67–6.024.64–13.70actual3.003.006.00
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2111.3625.57safe10.51–17.917.99–14.7418.49–32.66safer9.48–18.947.05–15.6716.53–34.62actual12.0019.0031.00
Shots in box
74%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.387.2117.59safe7.86–12.894.91–9.5112.77–22.40safer7.00–13.764.11–10.3111.11–24.06actual8.0013.0021.00
Blocked shots
63%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.272.907.17safe2.68–5.851.49–4.324.17–10.17safer2.15–6.391.00–4.803.15–11.19actual2.005.007.00
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.814.2210.03safe3.61–8.022.24–6.205.85–14.22safer3.01–8.611.71–6.744.72–15.35actual2.0011.0013.00
Possession %
84%
14%
homeawayprediction58.1041.66safe51.79–64.4235.34–47.98safer50.19–66.0233.74–49.57actual61.0039.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction506344851safe441–572280–409721–981safer423–589262–427686–1016actual491305796
Pass accuracy %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction69.9764.68safe65.76–74.1960.18–69.19safer64.46–75.4958.85–70.52
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4412.1023.53safe8.58–14.309.15–15.0417.73–29.34safer7.70–15.188.23–15.9615.93–31.14actual14.0015.0029.00
Offsides
41%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.633.36safe0.52–2.940.47–2.790.99–5.73safer0.17–3.280.14–3.130.31–6.41actual3.003.006.00
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.953.56safe0.56–2.670.83–3.071.39–5.74safer0.28–2.940.54–3.360.83–6.30actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.060.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.423.125.54safe1.01–3.841.56–4.672.57–8.51safer0.62–4.231.13–5.101.75–9.33actual3.001.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.69 0.50–2.95 | 2.00 | 0.97 0.11–1.83 0.00–2.08 | 0.00 | 2.70 0.88–4.52 0.37–5.03 | 2.00 | 55% 24% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.33 3.47–7.18 2.97–7.68 | 3.00 | 3.85 2.14–5.55 1.67–6.02 | 3.00 | 9.17 5.61–12.74 4.64–13.70 | 6.00 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 14.21 10.51–17.91 9.48–18.94 | 12.00 | 11.36 7.99–14.74 7.05–15.67 | 19.00 | 25.57 18.49–32.66 16.53–34.62 | 31.00 | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 10.38 7.86–12.89 7.00–13.76 | 8.00 | 7.21 4.91–9.51 4.11–10.31 | 13.00 | 17.59 12.77–22.40 11.11–24.06 | 21.00 | 74% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.27 2.68–5.85 2.15–6.39 | 2.00 | 2.90 1.49–4.32 1.00–4.80 | 5.00 | 7.17 4.17–10.17 3.15–11.19 | 7.00 | 63% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 5.81 3.61–8.02 3.01–8.61 | 2.00 | 4.22 2.24–6.20 1.71–6.74 | 11.00 | 10.03 5.85–14.22 4.72–15.35 | 13.00 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 58.10 51.79–64.42 50.19–66.02 | 61.00 | 41.66 35.34–47.98 33.74–49.57 | 39.00 | — | — | 84% 14% |
| Passes | 506 441–572 423–589 | 491 | 344 280–409 262–427 | 305 | 851 721–981 686–1016 | 796 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.97 65.76–74.19 64.46–75.49 | — | 64.68 60.18–69.19 58.85–70.52 | — | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Fouls | 11.44 8.58–14.30 7.70–15.18 | 14.00 | 12.10 9.15–15.04 8.23–15.96 | 15.00 | 23.53 17.73–29.34 15.93–31.14 | 29.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.52–2.94 0.17–3.28 | 3.00 | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.14–3.13 | 3.00 | 3.36 0.99–5.73 0.31–6.41 | 6.00 | 41% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.67 0.28–2.94 | 3.00 | 1.95 0.83–3.07 0.54–3.36 | 2.00 | 3.56 1.39–5.74 0.83–6.30 | 5.00 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.42 1.01–3.84 0.62–4.23 | 3.00 | 3.12 1.56–4.67 1.13–5.10 | 1.00 | 5.54 2.57–8.51 1.75–9.33 | 4.00 | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+