Ligue 1·Regular Season - 5·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Guillaume Paradis · France
Goals
33%
26%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.412.66safe0.29–2.220.55–2.270.84–4.49safer0.03–2.480.30–2.520.34–4.99actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.084.228.30safe2.22–5.942.51–5.934.74–11.86safer1.73–6.442.04–6.403.77–12.83actual4.002.006.00
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1111.9424.04safe8.40–15.818.56–15.3116.96–31.12safer7.37–16.847.63–16.2415.00–33.09actual11.008.0019.00
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction7.928.3916.31safe5.41–10.446.09–10.6911.49–21.13safer4.54–11.305.29–11.499.83–22.79actual3.003.006.00
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.253.146.39safe1.67–4.831.72–4.553.39–9.39safer1.13–5.371.24–5.042.37–10.41actual4.000.004.00
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.819.99safe2.97–7.382.83–6.795.80–14.17safer2.38–7.982.30–7.334.67–15.30actual8.003.0011.00
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction51.9350.41safe45.62–58.2544.10–56.73safer44.02–59.8542.50–58.33actual52.0048.00
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction402417819safe337–467352–481689–948safer319–485335–499653–984actual412390802
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction65.7866.16safe61.56–69.9961.66–70.67safer60.26–71.2960.32–72.00
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0011.9423.94safe9.14–14.859.00–14.8918.14–29.74safer8.25–15.748.08–15.8116.33–31.54actual19.0013.0032.00
Offsides
33%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.993.68safe0.48–2.900.83–3.161.31–6.06safer0.14–3.240.50–3.490.64–6.73actual4.001.005.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.224.14safe0.86–2.971.10–3.341.96–6.31safer0.59–3.240.81–3.631.40–6.87actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.310.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.972.595.56safe1.55–4.381.04–4.152.59–8.53safer1.17–4.770.61–4.581.77–9.35actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.22 0.03–2.48 | 2.00 | 1.41 0.55–2.27 0.30–2.52 | 1.00 | 2.66 0.84–4.49 0.34–4.99 | 3.00 | 33% 26% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.22–5.94 1.73–6.44 | 4.00 | 4.22 2.51–5.93 2.04–6.40 | 2.00 | 8.30 4.74–11.86 3.77–12.83 | 6.00 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.11 8.40–15.81 7.37–16.84 | 11.00 | 11.94 8.56–15.31 7.63–16.24 | 8.00 | 24.04 16.96–31.12 15.00–33.09 | 19.00 | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 7.92 5.41–10.44 4.54–11.30 | 3.00 | 8.39 6.09–10.69 5.29–11.49 | 3.00 | 16.31 11.49–21.13 9.83–22.79 | 6.00 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.67–4.83 1.13–5.37 | 4.00 | 3.14 1.72–4.55 1.24–5.04 | 0.00 | 6.39 3.39–9.39 2.37–10.41 | 4.00 | 44% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.97–7.38 2.38–7.98 | 8.00 | 4.81 2.83–6.79 2.30–7.33 | 3.00 | 9.99 5.80–14.17 4.67–15.30 | 11.00 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 51.93 45.62–58.25 44.02–59.85 | 52.00 | 50.41 44.10–56.73 42.50–58.33 | 48.00 | — | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 402 337–467 319–485 | 412 | 417 352–481 335–499 | 390 | 819 689–948 653–984 | 802 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.78 61.56–69.99 60.26–71.29 | — | 66.16 61.66–70.67 60.32–72.00 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 12.00 9.14–14.85 8.25–15.74 | 19.00 | 11.94 9.00–14.89 8.08–15.81 | 13.00 | 23.94 18.14–29.74 16.33–31.54 | 32.00 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.48–2.90 0.14–3.24 | 4.00 | 1.99 0.83–3.16 0.50–3.49 | 1.00 | 3.68 1.31–6.06 0.64–6.73 | 5.00 | 33% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.86–2.97 0.59–3.24 | 1.00 | 2.22 1.10–3.34 0.81–3.63 | 1.00 | 4.14 1.96–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 2.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.55–4.38 1.17–4.77 | 1.00 | 2.59 1.04–4.15 0.61–4.58 | 3.00 | 5.56 2.59–8.53 1.77–9.35 | 4.00 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.