Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Geoffrey Kubler · French Guiana
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.262.62safe0.40–2.320.40–2.120.80–4.44safer0.14–2.580.16–2.370.29–4.95actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.834.549.37safe2.97–6.682.83–6.255.80–12.93safer2.47–7.182.37–6.724.84–13.90actual7.002.009.00
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7711.8725.64safe10.07–17.478.49–15.2418.56–32.72safer9.04–18.517.56–16.1716.59–34.68actual11.009.0020.00
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.318.2817.60safe6.80–11.835.98–10.5912.78–22.41safer5.93–12.695.19–11.3811.12–24.07actual6.006.0012.00
Blocked shots
46%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.463.246.70safe1.88–5.051.83–4.663.70–9.70safer1.34–5.581.34–5.142.68–10.72actual1.001.002.00
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.574.5510.12safe3.36–7.782.57–6.525.93–14.30safer2.77–8.372.03–7.064.80–15.43actual1.003.004.00
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.0749.38safe44.75–57.3943.06–55.70safer43.16–58.9941.46–57.30actual51.0049.00
Passes
59%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction492464956safe427–558399–529826–1086safer409–575382–546791–1121actual475448923
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction71.7068.96safe67.48–75.9164.45–73.46safer66.18–77.2163.12–74.79
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0910.2022.28safe9.23–14.947.25–13.1416.48–28.08safer8.34–15.836.33–14.0614.68–29.89actual15.0015.0030.00
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.723.56safe0.64–3.060.56–2.881.19–5.94safer0.29–3.400.22–3.210.52–6.61actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
40%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.563.21safe0.60–2.710.44–2.681.04–5.39safer0.33–2.980.15–2.970.48–5.95actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.163.436.59safe1.74–4.571.88–4.983.62–9.55safer1.35–4.961.44–5.422.80–10.37actual1.005.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.40–2.32 0.14–2.58 | 2.00 | 1.26 0.40–2.12 0.16–2.37 | 1.00 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.29–4.95 | 3.00 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.83 2.97–6.68 2.47–7.18 | 7.00 | 4.54 2.83–6.25 2.37–6.72 | 2.00 | 9.37 5.80–12.93 4.84–13.90 | 9.00 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 13.77 10.07–17.47 9.04–18.51 | 11.00 | 11.87 8.49–15.24 7.56–16.17 | 9.00 | 25.64 18.56–32.72 16.59–34.68 | 20.00 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.31 6.80–11.83 5.93–12.69 | 6.00 | 8.28 5.98–10.59 5.19–11.38 | 6.00 | 17.60 12.78–22.41 11.12–24.07 | 12.00 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.88–5.05 1.34–5.58 | 1.00 | 3.24 1.83–4.66 1.34–5.14 | 1.00 | 6.70 3.70–9.70 2.68–10.72 | 2.00 | 46% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.36–7.78 2.77–8.37 | 1.00 | 4.55 2.57–6.52 2.03–7.06 | 3.00 | 10.12 5.93–14.30 4.80–15.43 | 4.00 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 51.07 44.75–57.39 43.16–58.99 | 51.00 | 49.38 43.06–55.70 41.46–57.30 | 49.00 | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 492 427–558 409–575 | 475 | 464 399–529 382–546 | 448 | 956 826–1086 791–1121 | 923 | 59% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.70 67.48–75.91 66.18–77.21 | — | 68.96 64.45–73.46 63.12–74.79 | — | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 12.09 9.23–14.94 8.34–15.83 | 15.00 | 10.20 7.25–13.14 6.33–14.06 | 15.00 | 22.28 16.48–28.08 14.68–29.89 | 30.00 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.64–3.06 0.29–3.40 | 0.00 | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.22–3.21 | 1.00 | 3.56 1.19–5.94 0.52–6.61 | 1.00 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.60–2.71 0.33–2.98 | 3.00 | 1.56 0.44–2.68 0.15–2.97 | 3.00 | 3.21 1.04–5.39 0.48–5.95 | 6.00 | 40% 23% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.16 1.74–4.57 1.35–4.96 | 1.00 | 3.43 1.88–4.98 1.44–5.42 | 5.00 | 6.59 3.62–9.55 2.80–10.37 | 6.00 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.