Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Mathieu Vernice · France
Goals
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.173.02safe0.88–2.810.31–2.031.19–4.84safer0.62–3.070.07–2.280.69–5.35actual4.000.004.00
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.029.32safe3.44–7.152.31–5.725.75–12.88safer2.94–7.651.84–6.194.79–13.85actual9.004.0013.00
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1411.6425.78safe10.44–17.858.26–15.0218.70–32.86safer9.41–18.887.33–15.9516.74–34.82actual15.0013.0028.00
Shots in box
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction11.098.2019.28safe8.57–13.615.89–10.5014.47–24.10safer7.71–14.475.10–11.2912.81–25.76actual10.009.0019.00
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.203.147.34safe2.62–5.791.73–4.564.35–10.34safer2.08–6.321.24–5.043.32–11.36actual1.001.002.00
Corners
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.834.5310.35safe3.62–8.032.55–6.516.17–14.54safer3.03–8.632.01–7.045.04–15.67actual3.008.0011.00
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.6848.63safe45.36–57.9942.31–54.95safer43.76–59.5940.72–56.55actual45.0055.00
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction452422875safe387–518357–487745–1004safer370–535340–504709–1040actual411486897
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction73.9071.61safe69.69–78.1267.10–76.12safer68.39–79.4265.77–77.45
Fouls
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6912.6623.35safe7.83–13.559.72–15.6117.55–29.16safer6.95–14.438.80–16.5315.75–30.96actual13.0014.0027.00
Offsides
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.194.08safe0.68–3.091.03–3.351.70–6.45safer0.33–3.440.70–3.691.03–7.12actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
29%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.344.07safe0.68–2.791.22–3.461.90–6.25safer0.41–3.060.93–3.751.33–6.81actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.905.52safe1.20–4.031.35–4.462.55–8.49safer0.81–4.420.92–4.891.73–9.31actual4.005.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.88–2.81 0.62–3.07 | 4.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.07–2.28 | 0.00 | 3.02 1.19–4.84 0.69–5.35 | 4.00 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.30 3.44–7.15 2.94–7.65 | 9.00 | 4.02 2.31–5.72 1.84–6.19 | 4.00 | 9.32 5.75–12.88 4.79–13.85 | 13.00 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.14 10.44–17.85 9.41–18.88 | 15.00 | 11.64 8.26–15.02 7.33–15.95 | 13.00 | 25.78 18.70–32.86 16.74–34.82 | 28.00 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 11.09 8.57–13.61 7.71–14.47 | 10.00 | 8.20 5.89–10.50 5.10–11.29 | 9.00 | 19.28 14.47–24.10 12.81–25.76 | 19.00 | 71% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 2.62–5.79 2.08–6.32 | 1.00 | 3.14 1.73–4.56 1.24–5.04 | 1.00 | 7.34 4.35–10.34 3.32–11.36 | 2.00 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.83 3.62–8.03 3.03–8.63 | 3.00 | 4.53 2.55–6.51 2.01–7.04 | 8.00 | 10.35 6.17–14.54 5.04–15.67 | 11.00 | 60% 29% |
| Possession % | 51.68 45.36–57.99 43.76–59.59 | 45.00 | 48.63 42.31–54.95 40.72–56.55 | 55.00 | — | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 452 387–518 370–535 | 411 | 422 357–487 340–504 | 486 | 875 745–1004 709–1040 | 897 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.90 69.69–78.12 68.39–79.42 | — | 71.61 67.10–76.12 65.77–77.45 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 10.69 7.83–13.55 6.95–14.43 | 13.00 | 12.66 9.72–15.61 8.80–16.53 | 14.00 | 23.35 17.55–29.16 15.75–30.96 | 27.00 | 30% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.68–3.09 0.33–3.44 | 2.00 | 2.19 1.03–3.35 0.70–3.69 | 0.00 | 4.08 1.70–6.45 1.03–7.12 | 2.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.79 0.41–3.06 | 4.00 | 2.34 1.22–3.46 0.93–3.75 | 2.00 | 4.07 1.90–6.25 1.33–6.81 | 6.00 | 29% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.20–4.03 0.81–4.42 | 4.00 | 2.90 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 5.00 | 5.52 2.55–8.49 1.73–9.31 | 9.00 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+