Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.502.79safe0.32–2.260.65–2.360.97–4.62safer0.07–2.510.42–2.590.49–5.10
Shots on target
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.554.769.31safe2.69–6.413.02–6.505.70–12.91safer2.20–6.902.55–6.974.75–13.87
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3212.7127.03safe10.39–18.249.15–16.2719.54–34.52safer9.30–19.338.19–17.2317.49–36.57
Shots in box
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction9.159.3518.50safe6.21–12.106.67–12.0312.88–24.12safer5.38–12.935.93–12.7611.31–25.69
Blocked shots
46%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.113.857.96safe2.23–5.992.20–5.504.42–11.49safer1.68–6.531.70–6.003.39–12.53
Corners
46%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.245.0810.32safe3.02–7.453.08–7.086.11–14.53safer2.45–8.022.55–7.625.00–15.64
Possession %
48%
48%
homeawayprediction50.4550.45safe43.66–57.2443.67–57.24safer41.99–58.9142.00–58.91
Passes
48%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction434439873safe366–501373–506739–1007safer348–519355–523704–1042
Pass accuracy %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction69.5873.00safe65.55–73.6168.67–77.32safer64.26–74.9167.36–78.63
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5412.2524.79safe9.70–15.389.31–15.2019.01–30.57safer8.94–16.138.56–15.9517.51–32.08
Offsides
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.683.45safe0.61–2.930.59–2.771.20–5.71safer0.31–3.230.30–3.060.61–6.30
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.214.23safe0.97–3.071.08–3.342.05–6.41safer0.71–3.340.79–3.631.50–6.97
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.120.27safe0.00–0.310.00–0.310.00–0.62safer0.00–0.460.00–0.440.00–0.90
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.276.23safe1.53–4.401.71–4.823.24–9.22safer1.14–4.791.29–5.252.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.26 0.07–2.51 | 1.50 0.65–2.36 0.42–2.59 | 2.79 0.97–4.62 0.49–5.10 | 33% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.55 2.69–6.41 2.20–6.90 | 4.76 3.02–6.50 2.55–6.97 | 9.31 5.70–12.91 4.75–13.87 | 41% 13% 46% |
| Total shots | 14.32 10.39–18.24 9.30–19.33 | 12.71 9.15–16.27 8.19–17.23 | 27.03 19.54–34.52 17.49–36.57 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 9.15 6.21–12.10 5.38–12.93 | 9.35 6.67–12.03 5.93–12.76 | 18.50 12.88–24.12 11.31–25.69 | 44% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 2.23–5.99 1.68–6.53 | 3.85 2.20–5.50 1.70–6.00 | 7.96 4.42–11.49 3.39–12.53 | 46% 14% 39% |
| Corners | 5.24 3.02–7.45 2.45–8.02 | 5.08 3.08–7.08 2.55–7.62 | 10.32 6.11–14.53 5.00–15.64 | 46% 42% |
| Possession % | 50.45 43.66–57.24 41.99–58.91 | 50.45 43.67–57.24 42.00–58.91 | — | 48% 48% |
| Passes | 434 366–501 348–519 | 439 373–506 355–523 | 873 739–1007 704–1042 | 48% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.58 65.55–73.61 64.26–74.91 | 73.00 68.67–77.32 67.36–78.63 | — | 31% 65% |
| Fouls | 12.54 9.70–15.38 8.94–16.13 | 12.25 9.31–15.20 8.56–15.95 | 24.79 19.01–30.57 17.51–32.08 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.23 | 1.68 0.59–2.77 0.30–3.06 | 3.45 1.20–5.71 0.61–6.30 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.97–3.07 0.71–3.34 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.23 2.05–6.41 1.50–6.97 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.53–4.40 1.14–4.79 | 3.27 1.71–4.82 1.29–5.25 | 6.23 3.24–9.22 2.43–10.04 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.