Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Clement Turpin · France
Goals
42%
24%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.433.03safe0.64–2.560.57–2.291.21–4.85safer0.37–2.820.33–2.540.70–5.36actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.319.63safe3.46–7.172.61–6.026.06–13.19safer2.96–7.672.14–6.495.10–14.16actual6.004.0010.00
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1012.7826.88safe10.39–17.809.40–16.1619.80–33.96safer9.36–18.838.47–17.0917.83–35.92actual9.0012.0021.00
Shots in box
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction9.2010.0019.20safe6.68–11.717.70–12.3014.38–24.02safer5.82–12.586.90–13.1012.72–25.68actual6.0010.0016.00
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.573.727.29safe1.98–5.152.31–5.144.29–10.29safer1.45–5.691.82–5.623.27–11.31actual1.004.005.00
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.244.9710.20safe3.03–7.442.99–6.946.02–14.39safer2.44–8.042.45–7.484.89–15.52actual2.008.0010.00
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction53.3847.77safe47.06–59.6941.45–54.08safer45.46–61.2939.85–55.68actual52.0048.00
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction496464960safe431–562399–529830–1090safer413–579382–546795–1125actual5295301059
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction72.5870.09safe68.37–76.8065.59–74.60safer67.07–78.1064.26–75.93
Fouls
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7810.8521.62safe7.92–13.647.90–13.7915.82–27.43safer7.04–14.526.98–14.7114.02–29.23actual13.0011.0024.00
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.603.51safe0.69–3.110.44–2.771.13–5.88safer0.35–3.460.11–3.100.46–6.56actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.873.65safe0.73–2.840.75–2.991.47–5.83safer0.45–3.110.46–3.280.91–6.39actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.236.30safe1.65–4.481.68–4.793.33–9.26safer1.26–4.871.25–5.222.51–10.09actual3.005.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.64–2.56 0.37–2.82 | 2.00 | 1.43 0.57–2.29 0.33–2.54 | 1.00 | 3.03 1.21–4.85 0.70–5.36 | 3.00 | 42% 24% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.32 3.46–7.17 2.96–7.67 | 6.00 | 4.31 2.61–6.02 2.14–6.49 | 4.00 | 9.63 6.06–13.19 5.10–14.16 | 10.00 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.10 10.39–17.80 9.36–18.83 | 9.00 | 12.78 9.40–16.16 8.47–17.09 | 12.00 | 26.88 19.80–33.96 17.83–35.92 | 21.00 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 9.20 6.68–11.71 5.82–12.58 | 6.00 | 10.00 7.70–12.30 6.90–13.10 | 10.00 | 19.20 14.38–24.02 12.72–25.68 | 16.00 | 38% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.98–5.15 1.45–5.69 | 1.00 | 3.72 2.31–5.14 1.82–5.62 | 4.00 | 7.29 4.29–10.29 3.27–11.31 | 5.00 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.24 3.03–7.44 2.44–8.04 | 2.00 | 4.97 2.99–6.94 2.45–7.48 | 8.00 | 10.20 6.02–14.39 4.89–15.52 | 10.00 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 53.38 47.06–59.69 45.46–61.29 | 52.00 | 47.77 41.45–54.08 39.85–55.68 | 48.00 | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 496 431–562 413–579 | 529 | 464 399–529 382–546 | 530 | 960 830–1090 795–1125 | 1059 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.58 68.37–76.80 67.07–78.10 | — | 70.09 65.59–74.60 64.26–75.93 | — | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 10.78 7.92–13.64 7.04–14.52 | 13.00 | 10.85 7.90–13.79 6.98–14.71 | 11.00 | 21.62 15.82–27.43 14.02–29.23 | 24.00 | 45% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.69–3.11 0.35–3.46 | 3.00 | 1.60 0.44–2.77 0.11–3.10 | 1.00 | 3.51 1.13–5.88 0.46–6.56 | 4.00 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.84 0.45–3.11 | 1.00 | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | 1.00 | 3.65 1.47–5.83 0.91–6.39 | 2.00 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.65–4.48 1.26–4.87 | 3.00 | 3.23 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.22 | 5.00 | 6.30 3.33–9.26 2.51–10.09 | 8.00 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.