Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Willy Delajod · France
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.472.71safe0.28–2.200.61–2.330.89–4.53safer0.02–2.460.36–2.570.38–5.04actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.609.41safe2.95–6.672.89–6.305.84–12.97safer2.45–7.162.42–6.774.88–13.94actual4.008.0012.00
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5312.0125.54safe9.83–17.238.63–15.3918.46–32.63safer8.80–18.267.70–16.3216.50–34.59actual10.0021.0031.00
Shots in box
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.898.3017.19safe6.38–11.416.00–10.6012.37–22.01safer5.51–12.275.20–11.3910.71–23.67actual7.0015.0022.00
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.227.08safe2.27–5.441.81–4.644.08–10.08safer1.74–5.971.32–5.123.06–11.10actual0.007.007.00
Corners
51%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.269.14safe2.68–7.092.28–6.244.96–13.33safer2.08–7.681.75–6.783.83–14.46actual3.007.0010.00
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction49.4449.83safe43.12–55.7643.51–56.15safer41.53–57.3641.91–57.74actual41.0059.00
Passes
56%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5184991017safe453–583434–564887–1147safer435–601417–581852–1182actual394539933
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction74.3974.07safe70.17–78.6069.56–78.57safer68.87–79.9068.23–79.90
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8210.1321.95safe8.96–14.687.18–13.0716.15–27.75safer8.08–15.566.27–13.9914.34–29.56actual16.009.0025.00
Offsides
40%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.863.76safe0.69–3.110.70–3.021.39–6.13safer0.35–3.460.36–3.350.71–6.81actual4.001.005.00
Yellow cards
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.773.61safe0.78–2.900.65–2.891.43–5.79safer0.51–3.170.36–3.180.87–6.35actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.060.19safe0.00–0.280.00–0.250.00–0.54safer0.00–0.440.00–0.400.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.332.605.93safe1.92–4.751.04–4.152.96–8.90safer1.53–5.140.61–4.582.14–9.72actual7.003.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.28–2.20 0.02–2.46 | 2.00 | 1.47 0.61–2.33 0.36–2.57 | 1.00 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.38–5.04 | 3.00 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.81 2.95–6.67 2.45–7.16 | 4.00 | 4.60 2.89–6.30 2.42–6.77 | 8.00 | 9.41 5.84–12.97 4.88–13.94 | 12.00 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.53 9.83–17.23 8.80–18.26 | 10.00 | 12.01 8.63–15.39 7.70–16.32 | 21.00 | 25.54 18.46–32.63 16.50–34.59 | 31.00 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.89 6.38–11.41 5.51–12.27 | 7.00 | 8.30 6.00–10.60 5.20–11.39 | 15.00 | 17.19 12.37–22.01 10.71–23.67 | 22.00 | 51% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 2.27–5.44 1.74–5.97 | 0.00 | 3.22 1.81–4.64 1.32–5.12 | 7.00 | 7.08 4.08–10.08 3.06–11.10 | 7.00 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.68–7.09 2.08–7.68 | 3.00 | 4.26 2.28–6.24 1.75–6.78 | 7.00 | 9.14 4.96–13.33 3.83–14.46 | 10.00 | 51% 13% 35% |
| Possession % | 49.44 43.12–55.76 41.53–57.36 | 41.00 | 49.83 43.51–56.15 41.91–57.74 | 59.00 | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 518 453–583 435–601 | 394 | 499 434–564 417–581 | 539 | 1017 887–1147 852–1182 | 933 | 56% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.39 70.17–78.60 68.87–79.90 | — | 74.07 69.56–78.57 68.23–79.90 | — | — | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 11.82 8.96–14.68 8.08–15.56 | 16.00 | 10.13 7.18–13.07 6.27–13.99 | 9.00 | 21.95 16.15–27.75 14.34–29.56 | 25.00 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.69–3.11 0.35–3.46 | 4.00 | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.36–3.35 | 1.00 | 3.76 1.39–6.13 0.71–6.81 | 5.00 | 40% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.78–2.90 0.51–3.17 | 3.00 | 1.77 0.65–2.89 0.36–3.18 | 1.00 | 3.61 1.43–5.79 0.87–6.35 | 4.00 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.33 1.92–4.75 1.53–5.14 | 7.00 | 2.60 1.04–4.15 0.61–4.58 | 3.00 | 5.93 2.96–8.90 2.14–9.72 | 10.00 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.