Ligue 1·Regular Season - 5·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jeremy Stinat · France
Goals
53%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.022.71safe0.72–2.650.16–1.880.88–4.53safer0.46–2.910.00–2.130.38–5.03actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.653.959.60safe3.80–7.512.24–5.656.04–13.16safer3.30–8.011.77–6.125.07–14.13actual7.001.008.00
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0910.9326.02safe11.39–18.797.55–14.3118.94–33.10safer10.36–19.826.62–15.2416.98–35.06actual17.005.0022.00
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.557.4217.97safe8.03–13.065.12–9.7213.15–22.79safer7.17–13.934.32–10.5211.49–24.45actual12.003.0015.00
Blocked shots
61%
13%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.333.067.39safe2.75–5.921.64–4.474.39–10.39safer2.21–6.451.16–4.963.37–11.41actual6.001.007.00
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.964.3010.26safe3.75–8.162.32–6.286.07–14.44safer3.16–8.761.78–6.814.94–15.57actual3.000.003.00
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction54.9245.14safe48.61–61.2438.82–51.46safer47.01–62.8437.22–53.05actual52.0048.00
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction523437960safe458–588373–502830–1090safer440–606355–519795–1125actual5615311092
Pass accuracy %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction69.9370.94safe65.72–74.1566.44–75.45safer64.41–75.4565.11–76.78
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2310.3820.61safe7.38–13.097.44–13.3314.81–26.42safer6.49–13.986.52–14.2413.01–28.22actual18.0012.0030.00
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.201.653.85safe0.99–3.410.48–2.811.48–6.22safer0.65–3.760.15–3.140.80–6.90actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.003.95safe0.90–3.010.88–3.121.78–6.13safer0.63–3.290.59–3.411.21–6.69actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.155.79safe1.23–4.061.59–4.702.83–8.76safer0.84–4.451.16–5.132.00–9.58actual1.005.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.72–2.65 0.46–2.91 | 2.00 | 1.02 0.16–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 1.00 | 2.71 0.88–4.53 0.38–5.03 | 3.00 | 53% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.65 3.80–7.51 3.30–8.01 | 7.00 | 3.95 2.24–5.65 1.77–6.12 | 1.00 | 9.60 6.04–13.16 5.07–14.13 | 8.00 | 65% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.09 11.39–18.79 10.36–19.82 | 17.00 | 10.93 7.55–14.31 6.62–15.24 | 5.00 | 26.02 18.94–33.10 16.98–35.06 | 22.00 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 10.55 8.03–13.06 7.17–13.93 | 12.00 | 7.42 5.12–9.72 4.32–10.52 | 3.00 | 17.97 13.15–22.79 11.49–24.45 | 15.00 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.33 2.75–5.92 2.21–6.45 | 6.00 | 3.06 1.64–4.47 1.16–4.96 | 1.00 | 7.39 4.39–10.39 3.37–11.41 | 7.00 | 61% 13% 25% |
| Corners | 5.96 3.75–8.16 3.16–8.76 | 3.00 | 4.30 2.32–6.28 1.78–6.81 | 0.00 | 10.26 6.07–14.44 4.94–15.57 | 3.00 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 54.92 48.61–61.24 47.01–62.84 | 52.00 | 45.14 38.82–51.46 37.22–53.05 | 48.00 | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 523 458–588 440–606 | 561 | 437 373–502 355–519 | 531 | 960 830–1090 795–1125 | 1092 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.93 65.72–74.15 64.41–75.45 | — | 70.94 66.44–75.45 65.11–76.78 | — | — | — | 43% 53% |
| Fouls | 10.23 7.38–13.09 6.49–13.98 | 18.00 | 10.38 7.44–13.33 6.52–14.24 | 12.00 | 20.61 14.81–26.42 13.01–28.22 | 30.00 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.20 0.99–3.41 0.65–3.76 | 1.00 | 1.65 0.48–2.81 0.15–3.14 | 0.00 | 3.85 1.48–6.22 0.80–6.90 | 1.00 | 51% 20% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.90–3.01 0.63–3.29 | 3.00 | 2.00 0.88–3.12 0.59–3.41 | 2.00 | 3.95 1.78–6.13 1.21–6.69 | 5.00 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.23–4.06 0.84–4.45 | 1.00 | 3.15 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.13 | 5.00 | 5.79 2.83–8.76 2.00–9.58 | 6.00 | 34% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+