Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj · France
Goals
46%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.132.63safe0.54–2.470.27–1.990.81–4.46safer0.28–2.730.02–2.240.30–4.96actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.764.128.88safe2.90–6.612.42–5.835.32–12.44safer2.40–7.111.95–6.304.35–13.41actual5.007.0012.00
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9412.5026.44safe10.23–17.649.12–15.8819.35–33.52safer9.20–18.678.19–16.8117.39–35.48actual14.0018.0032.00
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.228.0417.26safe6.70–11.735.74–10.3412.44–22.07safer5.83–12.604.94–11.1410.78–23.73actual10.0012.0022.00
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.813.307.11safe2.23–5.391.89–4.724.11–10.11safer1.69–5.931.40–5.203.09–11.13actual5.005.0010.00
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.034.519.54safe2.83–7.242.53–6.485.36–13.72safer2.23–7.831.99–7.024.22–14.86actual6.007.0013.00
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction53.4846.44safe47.16–59.8040.12–52.76safer45.57–61.3938.53–54.36actual53.0047.00
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction478403881safe413–544338–467751–1011safer395–561321–485716–1046actual477409886
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction68.4868.83safe64.26–72.6964.32–73.33safer62.96–73.9962.99–74.66
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2612.7726.03safe10.41–16.129.82–15.7120.23–31.83safer9.52–17.018.90–16.6318.42–33.64actual17.0015.0032.00
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.663.47safe0.60–3.020.50–2.821.10–5.84safer0.25–3.360.17–3.160.42–6.52actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.983.86safe0.83–2.940.86–3.101.69–6.04safer0.56–3.210.57–3.391.13–6.60actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.085.77safe1.28–4.111.52–4.632.80–8.74safer0.89–4.501.09–5.061.98–9.56actual5.002.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.47 0.28–2.73 | 3.00 | 1.13 0.27–1.99 0.02–2.24 | 2.00 | 2.63 0.81–4.46 0.30–4.96 | 5.00 | 46% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.76 2.90–6.61 2.40–7.11 | 5.00 | 4.12 2.42–5.83 1.95–6.30 | 7.00 | 8.88 5.32–12.44 4.35–13.41 | 12.00 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.94 10.23–17.64 9.20–18.67 | 14.00 | 12.50 9.12–15.88 8.19–16.81 | 18.00 | 26.44 19.35–33.52 17.39–35.48 | 32.00 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 9.22 6.70–11.73 5.83–12.60 | 10.00 | 8.04 5.74–10.34 4.94–11.14 | 12.00 | 17.26 12.44–22.07 10.78–23.73 | 22.00 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 2.23–5.39 1.69–5.93 | 5.00 | 3.30 1.89–4.72 1.40–5.20 | 5.00 | 7.11 4.11–10.11 3.09–11.13 | 10.00 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.03 2.83–7.24 2.23–7.83 | 6.00 | 4.51 2.53–6.48 1.99–7.02 | 7.00 | 9.54 5.36–13.72 4.22–14.86 | 13.00 | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 53.48 47.16–59.80 45.57–61.39 | 53.00 | 46.44 40.12–52.76 38.53–54.36 | 47.00 | — | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 478 413–544 395–561 | 477 | 403 338–467 321–485 | 409 | 881 751–1011 716–1046 | 886 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.48 64.26–72.69 62.96–73.99 | — | 68.83 64.32–73.33 62.99–74.66 | — | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 13.26 10.41–16.12 9.52–17.01 | 17.00 | 12.77 9.82–15.71 8.90–16.63 | 15.00 | 26.03 20.23–31.83 18.42–33.64 | 32.00 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.25–3.36 | 3.00 | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.17–3.16 | 1.00 | 3.47 1.10–5.84 0.42–6.52 | 4.00 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.94 0.56–3.21 | 3.00 | 1.98 0.86–3.10 0.57–3.39 | 1.00 | 3.86 1.69–6.04 1.13–6.60 | 4.00 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.28–4.11 0.89–4.50 | 5.00 | 3.08 1.52–4.63 1.09–5.06 | 2.00 | 5.77 2.80–8.74 1.98–9.56 | 7.00 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+