Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.472.93safe0.49–2.420.62–2.331.10–4.75safer0.23–2.670.39–2.560.62–5.23
Shots on target
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.024.689.70safe3.16–6.882.94–6.426.09–13.30safer2.67–7.372.47–6.895.14–14.26
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7012.5627.26safe10.78–18.639.00–16.1219.77–34.75safer9.69–19.728.04–17.0817.72–36.80
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.688.6018.28safe6.74–12.625.92–11.2812.66–23.90safer5.91–13.455.18–12.0211.09–25.47
Blocked shots
54%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.983.227.19safe2.09–5.861.56–4.873.66–10.73safer1.55–6.401.07–5.362.62–11.76
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.624.7110.33safe3.40–7.832.71–6.716.11–14.54safer2.83–8.402.18–7.245.01–15.65
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.6153.03safe40.82–54.4046.25–59.82safer39.15–56.0744.58–61.49
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction417472889safe350–484405–538755–1023safer332–502388–556719–1058
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction66.0772.64safe62.04–70.1068.32–76.96safer60.75–71.3967.01–78.27
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8714.9027.77safe10.03–15.7111.96–17.8521.99–33.55safer9.28–16.4611.21–18.6020.49–35.06
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.822.053.87safe0.66–2.980.96–3.141.62–6.13safer0.36–3.280.67–3.431.03–6.72
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.063.74safe0.63–2.730.93–3.191.56–5.92safer0.37–3.000.64–3.481.00–6.48
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.406.46safe1.63–4.501.84–4.963.47–9.46safer1.24–4.891.42–5.382.66–10.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.49–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.47 0.62–2.33 0.39–2.56 | 2.93 1.10–4.75 0.62–5.23 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Shots on target | 5.02 3.16–6.88 2.67–7.37 | 4.68 2.94–6.42 2.47–6.89 | 9.70 6.09–13.30 5.14–14.26 | 48% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.70 10.78–18.63 9.69–19.72 | 12.56 9.00–16.12 8.04–17.08 | 27.26 19.77–34.75 17.72–36.80 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 9.68 6.74–12.62 5.91–13.45 | 8.60 5.92–11.28 5.18–12.02 | 18.28 12.66–23.90 11.09–25.47 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.09–5.86 1.55–6.40 | 3.22 1.56–4.87 1.07–5.36 | 7.19 3.66–10.73 2.62–11.76 | 54% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.40–7.83 2.83–8.40 | 4.71 2.71–6.71 2.18–7.24 | 10.33 6.11–14.54 5.01–15.65 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 47.61 40.82–54.40 39.15–56.07 | 53.03 46.25–59.82 44.58–61.49 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 417 350–484 332–502 | 472 405–538 388–556 | 889 755–1023 719–1058 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.07 62.04–70.10 60.75–71.39 | 72.64 68.32–76.96 67.01–78.27 | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 12.87 10.03–15.71 9.28–16.46 | 14.90 11.96–17.85 11.21–18.60 | 27.77 21.99–33.55 20.49–35.06 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.66–2.98 0.36–3.28 | 2.05 0.96–3.14 0.67–3.43 | 3.87 1.62–6.13 1.03–6.72 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.63–2.73 0.37–3.00 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.00–6.48 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.63–4.50 1.24–4.89 | 3.40 1.84–4.96 1.42–5.38 | 6.46 3.47–9.46 2.66–10.27 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.