Ligue 1·Regular Season - 5·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Francois Letexier
Goals
14%
16%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction1.172.723.89safe0.20–2.131.86–3.582.07–5.71safer0.00–2.391.62–3.831.56–6.22actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction3.606.9810.58safe1.75–5.465.27–8.697.02–14.15safer1.25–5.964.81–9.166.05–15.11actual4.0010.0014.00
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0917.1727.26safe6.39–13.8013.79–20.5420.18–34.34safer5.36–14.8312.86–21.4818.22–36.30actual12.0031.0043.00
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction7.5012.3919.88safe4.98–10.0110.08–14.6915.07–24.70safer4.12–10.889.29–15.4813.40–26.36actual7.0022.0029.00
Blocked shots
28%
14%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.134.167.30safe1.55–4.722.75–5.584.30–10.30safer1.02–5.252.26–6.063.28–11.32actual5.009.0014.00
Corners
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.736.069.78safe1.52–5.934.08–8.035.60–13.96safer0.93–6.533.54–8.574.46–15.10actual3.007.0010.00
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction36.2264.14safe29.91–42.5457.82–70.46safer28.31–44.1456.23–72.06actual39.0061.00
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction4306641094safe364–495600–729964–1224safer347–512582–747929–1259actual4046281032
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction77.3485.55safe73.12–81.5581.04–90.05safer71.82–82.8579.71–91.39
Fouls
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction9.299.0118.31safe6.44–12.156.07–11.9612.51–24.11safer5.55–13.045.15–12.8810.70–25.91actual9.003.0012.00
Offsides
41%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.412.404.81safe1.20–3.621.24–3.572.44–7.18safer0.85–3.960.91–3.901.76–7.86actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
43%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.483.16safe0.63–2.740.36–2.600.99–5.34safer0.36–3.010.07–2.890.42–5.90actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.060.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.512.476.98safe3.10–5.930.91–4.024.01–9.95safer2.71–6.320.48–4.453.19–10.77actual8.003.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.13 0.00–2.39 | 1.00 | 2.72 1.86–3.58 1.62–3.83 | 2.00 | 3.89 2.07–5.71 1.56–6.22 | 3.00 | 14% 16% 70% |
| Shots on target | 3.60 1.75–5.46 1.25–5.96 | 4.00 | 6.98 5.27–8.69 4.81–9.16 | 10.00 | 10.58 7.02–14.15 6.05–15.11 | 14.00 | 81% |
| Total shots | 10.09 6.39–13.80 5.36–14.83 | 12.00 | 17.17 13.79–20.54 12.86–21.48 | 31.00 | 27.26 20.18–34.34 18.22–36.30 | 43.00 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 7.50 4.98–10.01 4.12–10.88 | 7.00 | 12.39 10.08–14.69 9.29–15.48 | 22.00 | 19.88 15.07–24.70 13.40–26.36 | 29.00 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 1.55–4.72 1.02–5.25 | 5.00 | 4.16 2.75–5.58 2.26–6.06 | 9.00 | 7.30 4.30–10.30 3.28–11.32 | 14.00 | 28% 14% 58% |
| Corners | 3.73 1.52–5.93 0.93–6.53 | 3.00 | 6.06 4.08–8.03 3.54–8.57 | 7.00 | 9.78 5.60–13.96 4.46–15.10 | 10.00 | 18% 72% |
| Possession % | 36.22 29.91–42.54 28.31–44.14 | 39.00 | 64.14 57.82–70.46 56.23–72.06 | 61.00 | — | — | 96% |
| Passes | 430 364–495 347–512 | 404 | 664 600–729 582–747 | 628 | 1094 964–1224 929–1259 | 1032 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.34 73.12–81.55 71.82–82.85 | — | 85.55 81.04–90.05 79.71–91.39 | — | — | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 9.29 6.44–12.15 5.55–13.04 | 9.00 | 9.01 6.07–11.96 5.15–12.88 | 3.00 | 18.31 12.51–24.11 10.70–25.91 | 12.00 | 48% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.41 1.20–3.62 0.85–3.96 | 1.00 | 2.40 1.24–3.57 0.91–3.90 | 2.00 | 4.81 2.44–7.18 1.76–7.86 | 3.00 | 41% 19% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.63–2.74 0.36–3.01 | 2.00 | 1.48 0.36–2.60 0.07–2.89 | 1.00 | 3.16 0.99–5.34 0.42–5.90 | 3.00 | 43% 23% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 1.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 1.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 4.51 3.10–5.93 2.71–6.32 | 8.00 | 2.47 0.91–4.02 0.48–4.45 | 3.00 | 6.98 4.01–9.95 3.19–10.77 | 11.00 | 72% 16% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+