Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.472.78safe0.34–2.280.61–2.320.96–4.60safer0.09–2.530.39–2.550.48–5.08
Shots on target
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.424.879.29safe2.55–6.283.13–6.625.69–12.90safer2.07–6.772.67–7.084.73–13.85
Total shots
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1613.3626.52safe9.23–17.089.80–16.9219.03–34.01safer8.14–18.188.84–17.8816.98–36.06
Shots in box
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction8.069.8217.88safe5.12–11.007.14–12.5012.26–23.51safer4.29–11.836.40–13.2410.69–25.07
Blocked shots
30%
14%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.504.447.93safe1.61–5.382.78–6.094.40–11.47safer1.07–5.922.29–6.583.36–12.50
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.974.799.76safe2.76–7.182.79–6.795.54–13.97safer2.18–7.762.25–7.324.44–15.08
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction46.4554.91safe39.66–53.2448.13–61.70safer37.99–54.9146.46–63.37
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction434499933safe367–501433–565799–1067safer349–519415–583763–1102
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction67.1476.41safe63.11–71.1672.09–80.73safer61.81–72.4670.78–82.04
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3611.6023.96safe9.53–15.208.65–14.5418.18–29.74safer8.77–15.967.90–15.2916.67–31.25
Offsides
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.963.80safe0.67–2.990.87–3.061.54–6.05safer0.37–3.290.58–3.340.95–6.64
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.953.97safe0.97–3.070.82–3.081.79–6.15safer0.70–3.330.53–3.371.23–6.70
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.100.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.213.276.48safe1.78–4.651.71–4.823.49–9.47safer1.39–5.041.29–5.252.67–10.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.47 0.61–2.32 0.39–2.55 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 34% 25% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.55–6.28 2.07–6.77 | 4.87 3.13–6.62 2.67–7.08 | 9.29 5.69–12.90 4.73–13.85 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 13.16 9.23–17.08 8.14–18.18 | 13.36 9.80–16.92 8.84–17.88 | 26.52 19.03–34.01 16.98–36.06 | 45% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.06 5.12–11.00 4.29–11.83 | 9.82 7.14–12.50 6.40–13.24 | 17.88 12.26–23.51 10.69–25.07 | 30% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.61–5.38 1.07–5.92 | 4.44 2.78–6.09 2.29–6.58 | 7.93 4.40–11.47 3.36–12.50 | 30% 14% 56% |
| Corners | 4.97 2.76–7.18 2.18–7.76 | 4.79 2.79–6.79 2.25–7.32 | 9.76 5.54–13.97 4.44–15.08 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 46.45 39.66–53.24 37.99–54.91 | 54.91 48.13–61.70 46.46–63.37 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 434 367–501 349–519 | 499 433–565 415–583 | 933 799–1067 763–1102 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.14 63.11–71.16 61.81–72.46 | 76.41 72.09–80.73 70.78–82.04 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.36 9.53–15.20 8.77–15.96 | 11.60 8.65–14.54 7.90–15.29 | 23.96 18.18–29.74 16.67–31.25 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.96 0.87–3.06 0.58–3.34 | 3.80 1.54–6.05 0.95–6.64 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.97–3.07 0.70–3.33 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.23–6.70 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.78–4.65 1.39–5.04 | 3.27 1.71–4.82 1.29–5.25 | 6.48 3.49–9.47 2.67–10.28 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.