Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
22%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.902.89safe0.02–1.961.04–2.751.07–4.71safer0.00–2.210.81–2.980.59–5.19
Shots on target
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.485.088.55safe1.61–5.343.33–6.824.95–12.16safer1.13–5.832.87–7.283.99–13.11
Total shots
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4214.4824.90safe6.49–14.3410.92–18.0417.41–32.38safer5.40–15.439.96–19.0015.36–34.44
Shots in box
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction6.359.2115.56safe3.41–9.296.53–11.899.93–21.18safer2.58–10.125.79–12.628.37–22.75
Blocked shots
27%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.926.77safe0.96–4.732.27–5.573.23–10.30safer0.42–5.271.78–6.072.20–11.34
Corners
31%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.014.948.95safe1.80–6.222.94–6.944.74–13.17safer1.22–6.802.41–7.483.63–14.27
Possession %
17%
79%
homeawayprediction42.6257.48safe35.83–49.4150.70–64.27safer34.16–51.0849.03–65.94
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction4405711011safe373–507505–638878–1145safer355–525487–655842–1181
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction66.7078.23safe62.67–70.7273.91–82.56safer61.37–72.0272.60–83.87
Fouls
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1113.4323.54safe7.27–12.9410.49–16.3817.76–29.32safer6.51–13.709.74–17.1316.25–30.83
Offsides
35%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.663.16safe0.34–2.660.57–2.750.91–5.42safer0.04–2.960.28–3.040.32–6.01
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.093.77safe0.63–2.730.96–3.221.59–5.95safer0.36–2.990.67–3.511.03–6.51
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.522.576.09safe2.09–4.961.01–4.133.10–9.09safer1.70–5.350.59–4.552.29–9.90
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.90 1.04–2.75 0.81–2.98 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.59–5.19 | 19% 22% 58% |
| Shots on target | 3.48 1.61–5.34 1.13–5.83 | 5.08 3.33–6.82 2.87–7.28 | 8.55 4.95–12.16 3.99–13.11 | 23% 65% |
| Total shots | 10.42 6.49–14.34 5.40–15.43 | 14.48 10.92–18.04 9.96–19.00 | 24.90 17.41–32.38 15.36–34.44 | 18% 76% |
| Shots in box | 6.35 3.41–9.29 2.58–10.12 | 9.21 6.53–11.89 5.79–12.62 | 15.56 9.93–21.18 8.37–22.75 | 20% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 2.85 0.96–4.73 0.42–5.27 | 3.92 2.27–5.57 1.78–6.07 | 6.77 3.23–10.30 2.20–11.34 | 27% 14% 59% |
| Corners | 4.01 1.80–6.22 1.22–6.80 | 4.94 2.94–6.94 2.41–7.48 | 8.95 4.74–13.17 3.63–14.27 | 31% 56% |
| Possession % | 42.62 35.83–49.41 34.16–51.08 | 57.48 50.70–64.27 49.03–65.94 | — | 17% 79% |
| Passes | 440 373–507 355–525 | 571 505–638 487–655 | 1011 878–1145 842–1181 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.70 62.67–70.72 61.37–72.02 | 78.23 73.91–82.56 72.60–83.87 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 10.11 7.27–12.94 6.51–13.70 | 13.43 10.49–16.38 9.74–17.13 | 23.54 17.76–29.32 16.25–30.83 | 21% 72% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.04–2.96 | 1.66 0.57–2.75 0.28–3.04 | 3.16 0.91–5.42 0.32–6.01 | 35% 24% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.63–2.73 0.36–2.99 | 2.09 0.96–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 3.77 1.59–5.95 1.03–6.51 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.52 2.09–4.96 1.70–5.35 | 2.57 1.01–4.13 0.59–4.55 | 6.09 3.10–9.09 2.29–9.90 | 57% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.