Predicted match statistics
Goals
59%
23%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.810.882.69safe0.84–2.780.02–1.730.87–4.51safer0.59–3.030.00–1.960.39–4.99
Shots on target
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.573.158.72safe3.71–7.431.41–4.895.11–12.32safer3.22–7.920.94–5.364.16–13.28
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction16.298.7725.07safe12.37–20.225.21–12.3417.58–32.56safer11.28–21.314.25–13.3015.53–34.61
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction10.675.9816.65safe7.73–13.613.30–8.6611.03–22.27safer6.90–14.442.56–9.409.46–23.84
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.152.336.47safe2.26–6.030.67–3.982.94–10.01safer1.72–6.570.18–4.471.90–11.04
Corners
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.723.419.14safe3.51–7.941.41–5.414.92–13.35safer2.94–8.510.88–5.953.82–14.46
Possession %
83%
15%
homeawayprediction58.4141.59safe51.62–65.2034.80–48.37safer49.95–66.8733.13–50.04
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction6064261032safe539–673360–492898–1166safer520–691342–510862–1201
Pass accuracy %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction75.0971.29safe71.06–79.1266.97–75.62safer69.77–80.4165.66–76.93
Fouls
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction13.119.9623.07safe10.27–15.947.01–12.9017.28–28.85safer9.51–16.706.27–13.6515.78–30.35
Offsides
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.232.96safe0.57–2.890.14–2.330.71–5.22safer0.27–3.190.00–2.620.12–5.80
Yellow cards
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.542.99safe0.39–2.490.42–2.670.81–5.17safer0.13–2.760.12–2.970.25–5.72
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.333.726.05safe0.89–3.772.17–5.283.06–9.05safer0.51–4.151.74–5.702.25–9.86
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.84–2.78 0.59–3.03 | 0.88 0.02–1.73 0.00–1.96 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.39–4.99 | 59% 23% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.57 3.71–7.43 3.22–7.92 | 3.15 1.41–4.89 0.94–5.36 | 8.72 5.11–12.32 4.16–13.28 | 74% 16% |
| Total shots | 16.29 12.37–20.22 11.28–21.31 | 8.77 5.21–12.34 4.25–13.30 | 25.07 17.58–32.56 15.53–34.61 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 10.67 7.73–13.61 6.90–14.44 | 5.98 3.30–8.66 2.56–9.40 | 16.65 11.03–22.27 9.46–23.84 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 4.15 2.26–6.03 1.72–6.57 | 2.33 0.67–3.98 0.18–4.47 | 6.47 2.94–10.01 1.90–11.04 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 5.72 3.51–7.94 2.94–8.51 | 3.41 1.41–5.41 0.88–5.95 | 9.14 4.92–13.35 3.82–14.46 | 73% 17% |
| Possession % | 58.41 51.62–65.20 49.95–66.87 | 41.59 34.80–48.37 33.13–50.04 | — | 83% 15% |
| Passes | 606 539–673 520–691 | 426 360–492 342–510 | 1032 898–1166 862–1201 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.09 71.06–79.12 69.77–80.41 | 71.29 66.97–75.62 65.66–76.93 | — | 66% 29% |
| Fouls | 13.11 10.27–15.94 9.51–16.70 | 9.96 7.01–12.90 6.27–13.65 | 23.07 17.28–28.85 15.78–30.35 | 71% 22% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.57–2.89 0.27–3.19 | 1.23 0.14–2.33 0.00–2.62 | 2.96 0.71–5.22 0.12–5.80 | 49% 24% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.49 0.13–2.76 | 1.54 0.42–2.67 0.12–2.97 | 2.99 0.81–5.17 0.25–5.72 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.89–3.77 0.51–4.15 | 3.72 2.17–5.28 1.74–5.70 | 6.05 3.06–9.05 2.25–9.86 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.