Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.222.98safe0.79–2.730.36–2.071.15–4.80safer0.54–2.980.13–2.300.67–5.28
Shots on target
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.4310.23safe3.93–7.662.69–6.176.62–13.83safer3.44–8.152.22–6.645.67–14.79
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7011.5726.27safe10.78–18.638.01–15.1318.78–33.76safer9.68–19.727.05–16.0916.73–35.81
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.837.4317.25safe6.89–12.774.75–10.1111.63–22.88safer6.06–13.604.01–10.8510.06–24.44
Blocked shots
56%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.852.976.82safe1.97–5.731.32–4.633.29–10.36safer1.43–6.280.83–5.122.25–11.39
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.129.92safe3.59–8.022.12–6.125.71–14.13safer3.01–8.591.58–6.654.60–15.24
Possession %
72%
25%
homeawayprediction55.6545.04safe48.86–62.4438.26–51.83safer47.19–64.1136.58–53.50
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5564571013safe489–623390–523879–1147safer471–642373–541844–1182
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction74.7473.92safe70.71–78.7769.59–78.24safer69.41–80.0668.28–79.55
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4812.1723.65safe8.64–14.329.23–15.1217.87–29.43safer7.89–15.078.48–15.8716.37–30.94
Offsides
46%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.533.42safe0.73–3.050.43–2.621.17–5.68safer0.43–3.360.15–2.910.58–6.27
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.903.46safe0.51–2.610.77–3.021.28–5.64safer0.25–2.880.48–3.320.72–6.19
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
27%
14%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.906.74safe1.40–4.272.35–5.463.75–9.73safer1.01–4.661.92–5.882.93–10.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.73 0.54–2.98 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.98 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 50% 23% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.80 3.93–7.66 3.44–8.15 | 4.43 2.69–6.17 2.22–6.64 | 10.23 6.62–13.83 5.67–14.79 | 61% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.70 10.78–18.63 9.68–19.72 | 11.57 8.01–15.13 7.05–16.09 | 26.27 18.78–33.76 16.73–35.81 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 9.83 6.89–12.77 6.06–13.60 | 7.43 4.75–10.11 4.01–10.85 | 17.25 11.63–22.88 10.06–24.44 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.85 1.97–5.73 1.43–6.28 | 2.97 1.32–4.63 0.83–5.12 | 6.82 3.29–10.36 2.25–11.39 | 56% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.80 3.59–8.02 3.01–8.59 | 4.12 2.12–6.12 1.58–6.65 | 9.92 5.71–14.13 4.60–15.24 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 55.65 48.86–62.44 47.19–64.11 | 45.04 38.26–51.83 36.58–53.50 | — | 72% 25% |
| Passes | 556 489–623 471–642 | 457 390–523 373–541 | 1013 879–1147 844–1182 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.74 70.71–78.77 69.41–80.06 | 73.92 69.59–78.24 68.28–79.55 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 11.48 8.64–14.32 7.89–15.07 | 12.17 9.23–15.12 8.48–15.87 | 23.65 17.87–29.43 16.37–30.94 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.43–3.36 | 1.53 0.43–2.62 0.15–2.91 | 3.42 1.17–5.68 0.58–6.27 | 46% 22% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.25–2.88 | 1.90 0.77–3.02 0.48–3.32 | 3.46 1.28–5.64 0.72–6.19 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 3.90 2.35–5.46 1.92–5.88 | 6.74 3.75–9.73 2.93–10.54 | 27% 14% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.