Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
25%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.552.69safe0.17–2.110.70–2.410.87–4.51safer0.00–2.360.47–2.640.39–4.99
Shots on target
34%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.365.169.53safe2.50–6.233.42–6.905.92–13.13safer2.01–6.722.95–7.374.97–14.09
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5113.5126.03safe8.59–16.449.95–17.0818.54–33.51safer7.49–17.538.99–18.0416.49–35.56
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction7.289.1116.39safe4.34–10.226.43–11.8010.77–22.02safer3.51–11.055.70–12.539.20–23.58
Blocked shots
38%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.303.586.88safe1.42–5.181.93–5.243.35–10.42safer0.87–5.721.44–5.732.31–11.45
Corners
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.565.179.73safe2.34–6.773.17–7.175.52–13.94safer1.77–7.342.64–7.714.41–15.05
Possession %
23%
74%
homeawayprediction43.9955.74safe37.20–50.7848.96–62.53safer35.53–52.4547.29–64.20
Passes
24%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction4675491016safe400–534483–616882–1150safer381–552465–633847–1185
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction69.3378.27safe65.30–73.3673.94–82.59safer64.01–74.6572.63–83.90
Fouls
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0113.0023.01safe7.17–12.8510.05–15.9417.23–28.79safer6.42–13.609.31–16.6915.72–30.30
Offsides
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.773.26safe0.33–2.650.68–2.861.01–5.51safer0.03–2.950.39–3.150.42–6.10
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.023.63safe0.56–2.650.89–3.151.45–5.80safer0.29–2.920.60–3.440.89–6.36
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
47%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.393.096.48safe1.95–4.831.54–4.653.49–9.48safer1.57–5.211.11–5.072.68–10.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.55 0.70–2.41 0.47–2.64 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.39–4.99 | 28% 25% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.50–6.23 2.01–6.72 | 5.16 3.42–6.90 2.95–7.37 | 9.53 5.92–13.13 4.97–14.09 | 34% 54% |
| Total shots | 12.51 8.59–16.44 7.49–17.53 | 13.51 9.95–17.08 8.99–18.04 | 26.03 18.54–33.51 16.49–35.56 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.28 4.34–10.22 3.51–11.05 | 9.11 6.43–11.80 5.70–12.53 | 16.39 10.77–22.02 9.20–23.58 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.42–5.18 0.87–5.72 | 3.58 1.93–5.24 1.44–5.73 | 6.88 3.35–10.42 2.31–11.45 | 38% 15% 47% |
| Corners | 4.56 2.34–6.77 1.77–7.34 | 5.17 3.17–7.17 2.64–7.71 | 9.73 5.52–13.94 4.41–15.05 | 36% 51% |
| Possession % | 43.99 37.20–50.78 35.53–52.45 | 55.74 48.96–62.53 47.29–64.20 | — | 23% 74% |
| Passes | 467 400–534 381–552 | 549 483–616 465–633 | 1016 882–1150 847–1185 | 24% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.33 65.30–73.36 64.01–74.65 | 78.27 73.94–82.59 72.63–83.90 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 10.01 7.17–12.85 6.42–13.60 | 13.00 10.05–15.94 9.31–16.69 | 23.01 17.23–28.79 15.72–30.30 | 23% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.49 0.33–2.65 0.03–2.95 | 1.77 0.68–2.86 0.39–3.15 | 3.26 1.01–5.51 0.42–6.10 | 33% 23% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.65 0.29–2.92 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.63 1.45–5.80 0.89–6.36 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.39 1.95–4.83 1.57–5.21 | 3.09 1.54–4.65 1.11–5.07 | 6.48 3.49–9.48 2.68–10.29 | 47% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.