Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.362.73safe0.40–2.340.50–2.210.90–4.55safer0.15–2.590.28–2.440.42–5.03
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.739.58safe2.98–6.712.99–6.475.97–13.18safer2.49–7.202.52–6.945.02–14.14
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1212.2126.32safe10.19–18.048.64–15.7718.84–33.81safer9.10–19.137.68–16.7316.78–35.86
Shots in box
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.648.3717.01safe5.70–11.585.69–11.0511.39–22.64safer4.87–12.414.95–11.799.82–24.20
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.634.017.64safe1.75–5.512.36–5.664.10–11.17safer1.20–6.051.86–6.153.07–12.21
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.159.41safe3.04–7.472.15–6.155.19–13.62safer2.47–8.051.61–6.684.08–14.73
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.4754.51safe39.68–53.2647.72–61.29safer38.01–54.9346.05–62.97
Passes
34%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction4845321016safe416–551466–599882–1150safer398–569448–616847–1185
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction67.7175.26safe63.68–71.7470.93–79.58safer62.39–73.0369.62–80.89
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9611.4522.41safe8.12–13.808.50–14.3916.62–28.19safer7.36–14.557.75–15.1415.12–29.69
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.793.41safe0.46–2.780.70–2.891.16–5.67safer0.16–3.080.41–3.170.57–6.26
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.003.76safe0.71–2.810.87–3.131.58–5.94safer0.44–3.070.58–3.421.03–6.50
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
40%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.123.226.34safe1.69–4.561.66–4.773.35–9.33safer1.30–4.951.24–5.202.54–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.36 0.50–2.21 0.28–2.44 | 2.73 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.98–6.71 2.49–7.20 | 4.73 2.99–6.47 2.52–6.94 | 9.58 5.97–13.18 5.02–14.14 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 14.12 10.19–18.04 9.10–19.13 | 12.21 8.64–15.77 7.68–16.73 | 26.32 18.84–33.81 16.78–35.86 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 8.64 5.70–11.58 4.87–12.41 | 8.37 5.69–11.05 4.95–11.79 | 17.01 11.39–22.64 9.82–24.20 | 48% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.51 1.20–6.05 | 4.01 2.36–5.66 1.86–6.15 | 7.64 4.10–11.17 3.07–12.21 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.04–7.47 2.47–8.05 | 4.15 2.15–6.15 1.61–6.68 | 9.41 5.19–13.62 4.08–14.73 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 46.47 39.68–53.26 38.01–54.93 | 54.51 47.72–61.29 46.05–62.97 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 484 416–551 398–569 | 532 466–599 448–616 | 1016 882–1150 847–1185 | 34% 66% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.71 63.68–71.74 62.39–73.03 | 75.26 70.93–79.58 69.62–80.89 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 10.96 8.12–13.80 7.36–14.55 | 11.45 8.50–14.39 7.75–15.14 | 22.41 16.62–28.19 15.12–29.69 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 1.79 0.70–2.89 0.41–3.17 | 3.41 1.16–5.67 0.57–6.26 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.44–3.07 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.76 1.58–5.94 1.03–6.50 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.12 1.69–4.56 1.30–4.95 | 3.22 1.66–4.77 1.24–5.20 | 6.34 3.35–9.33 2.54–10.15 | 40% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.