Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.352.69safe0.37–2.300.50–2.210.86–4.51safer0.12–2.560.27–2.430.38–4.99
Shots on target
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.999.87safe3.01–6.743.25–6.736.26–13.47safer2.52–7.232.78–7.205.30–14.43
Total shots
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5912.6026.19safe9.66–17.519.04–16.1718.70–33.68safer8.57–18.608.08–17.1216.65–35.73
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.218.3516.57safe5.27–11.155.67–11.0410.94–22.19safer4.44–11.984.94–11.779.38–23.76
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.353.296.64safe1.47–5.231.64–4.943.11–10.18safer0.93–5.781.15–5.442.07–11.22
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.549.80safe3.05–7.482.54–6.545.59–14.02safer2.48–8.052.01–7.074.48–15.13
Possession %
52%
44%
homeawayprediction51.0649.40safe44.27–57.8642.62–56.19safer42.60–59.5240.94–57.86
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5185011019safe451–586434–567885–1153safer433–604417–585850–1188
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction74.0275.36safe69.99–78.0571.04–79.68safer68.70–79.3469.73–80.99
Fouls
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction12.949.8922.83safe10.10–15.776.95–12.8417.05–28.61safer9.34–16.536.20–13.5915.54–30.12
Offsides
47%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.593.54safe0.80–3.120.50–2.681.29–5.80safer0.49–3.420.21–2.970.70–6.39
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.723.52safe0.75–2.850.59–2.851.34–5.70safer0.49–3.120.30–3.140.78–6.26
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.313.316.62safe1.88–4.751.75–4.873.63–9.61safer1.49–5.141.33–5.292.82–10.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.30 0.12–2.56 | 1.35 0.50–2.21 0.27–2.43 | 2.69 0.86–4.51 0.38–4.99 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.01–6.74 2.52–7.23 | 4.99 3.25–6.73 2.78–7.20 | 9.87 6.26–13.47 5.30–14.43 | 42% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.59 9.66–17.51 8.57–18.60 | 12.60 9.04–16.17 8.08–17.12 | 26.19 18.70–33.68 16.65–35.73 | 54% 39% |
| Shots in box | 8.21 5.27–11.15 4.44–11.98 | 8.35 5.67–11.04 4.94–11.77 | 16.57 10.94–22.19 9.38–23.76 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 1.47–5.23 0.93–5.78 | 3.29 1.64–4.94 1.15–5.44 | 6.64 3.11–10.18 2.07–11.22 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.05–7.48 2.48–8.05 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.01–7.07 | 9.80 5.59–14.02 4.48–15.13 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 51.06 44.27–57.86 42.60–59.52 | 49.40 42.62–56.19 40.94–57.86 | — | 52% 44% |
| Passes | 518 451–586 433–604 | 501 434–567 417–585 | 1019 885–1153 850–1188 | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.02 69.99–78.05 68.70–79.34 | 75.36 71.04–79.68 69.73–80.99 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.94 10.10–15.77 9.34–16.53 | 9.89 6.95–12.84 6.20–13.59 | 22.83 17.05–28.61 15.54–30.12 | 70% 23% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.49–3.42 | 1.59 0.50–2.68 0.21–2.97 | 3.54 1.29–5.80 0.70–6.39 | 47% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.49–3.12 | 1.72 0.59–2.85 0.30–3.14 | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.78–6.26 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.31 1.88–4.75 1.49–5.14 | 3.31 1.75–4.87 1.33–5.29 | 6.62 3.63–9.61 2.82–10.43 | 42% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.