Ligue 1·Regular Season - 8·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
60%
21%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.033.05safe1.05–2.990.17–1.881.23–4.87safer0.80–3.240.00–2.110.75–5.35
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.633.839.47safe3.77–7.502.09–5.575.86–13.07safer3.28–7.991.62–6.044.91–14.03
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction16.3411.5527.89safe12.41–20.267.99–15.1120.40–35.37safer11.32–21.357.03–16.0718.35–37.42
Shots in box
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.347.5317.87safe7.39–13.284.85–10.2112.25–23.49safer6.57–14.114.11–10.9510.68–25.06
Blocked shots
55%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.953.147.09safe2.07–5.831.48–4.793.55–10.62safer1.53–6.380.99–5.282.52–11.66
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.254.4710.71safe4.03–8.462.47–6.476.50–14.93safer3.46–9.031.93–7.005.39–16.03
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction61.4438.96safe54.65–68.2332.18–45.75safer52.98–69.9030.51–47.42
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction575347923safe508–643281–414789–1057safer490–661263–431754–1092
Pass accuracy %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction72.2865.67safe68.25–76.3161.34–69.99safer66.95–77.6060.03–71.30
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6512.7426.39safe10.81–16.489.80–15.6920.61–32.17safer10.05–17.249.05–16.4419.10–33.68
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.813.69safe0.72–3.040.72–2.911.44–5.94safer0.42–3.340.43–3.200.85–6.53
Yellow cards
31%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.843.30safe0.41–2.510.71–2.971.12–5.48safer0.15–2.780.42–3.260.56–6.04
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.656.36safe1.27–4.142.09–5.213.37–9.35safer0.88–4.531.67–5.632.55–10.16
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.02 1.05–2.99 0.80–3.24 | 1.03 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 3.05 1.23–4.87 0.75–5.35 | 60% 21% 19% |
| Shots on target | 5.63 3.77–7.50 3.28–7.99 | 3.83 2.09–5.57 1.62–6.04 | 9.47 5.86–13.07 4.91–14.03 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 16.34 12.41–20.26 11.32–21.35 | 11.55 7.99–15.11 7.03–16.07 | 27.89 20.40–35.37 18.35–37.42 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.34 7.39–13.28 6.57–14.11 | 7.53 4.85–10.21 4.11–10.95 | 17.87 12.25–23.49 10.68–25.06 | 71% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 2.07–5.83 1.53–6.38 | 3.14 1.48–4.79 0.99–5.28 | 7.09 3.55–10.62 2.52–11.66 | 55% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 6.25 4.03–8.46 3.46–9.03 | 4.47 2.47–6.47 1.93–7.00 | 10.71 6.50–14.93 5.39–16.03 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 61.44 54.65–68.23 52.98–69.90 | 38.96 32.18–45.75 30.51–47.42 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 575 508–643 490–661 | 347 281–414 263–431 | 923 789–1057 754–1092 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.28 68.25–76.31 66.95–77.60 | 65.67 61.34–69.99 60.03–71.30 | — | 78% 18% |
| Fouls | 13.65 10.81–16.48 10.05–17.24 | 12.74 9.80–15.69 9.05–16.44 | 26.39 20.61–32.17 19.10–33.68 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.81 0.72–2.91 0.43–3.20 | 3.69 1.44–5.94 0.85–6.53 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.41–2.51 0.15–2.78 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.30 1.12–5.48 0.56–6.04 | 31% 23% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.27–4.14 0.88–4.53 | 3.65 2.09–5.21 1.67–5.63 | 6.36 3.37–9.35 2.55–10.16 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+