Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.122.54safe0.45–2.390.26–1.970.72–4.36safer0.20–2.640.04–2.200.24–4.84
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.853.858.70safe2.99–6.722.10–5.595.09–12.30safer2.50–7.211.64–6.054.14–13.26
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9110.4125.33safe10.99–18.846.85–13.9817.84–32.82safer9.90–19.935.89–14.9415.79–34.87
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction9.217.0316.24safe6.27–12.154.35–9.7110.62–21.87safer5.44–12.983.61–10.459.05–23.43
Blocked shots
58%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.962.906.85safe2.07–5.841.24–4.553.32–10.39safer1.53–6.380.75–5.042.28–11.42
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.784.179.95safe3.56–7.992.17–6.175.73–14.16safer2.99–8.561.64–6.704.63–15.27
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.4449.93safe43.65–57.2343.14–56.71safer41.98–58.9041.47–58.38
Passes
59%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction467438905safe400–534372–505772–1039safer382–552354–522736–1075
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction68.9270.67safe64.89–72.9566.35–74.99safer63.60–74.2565.04–76.30
Fouls
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8211.4426.27safe11.99–17.668.50–14.3920.49–32.05safer11.23–18.427.75–15.1418.98–33.55
Offsides
39%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.733.47safe0.58–2.900.63–2.821.22–5.72safer0.28–3.200.35–3.110.63–6.31
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.763.48safe0.67–2.770.63–2.891.30–5.66safer0.40–3.030.34–3.180.75–6.22
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
34%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.205.88safe1.25–4.121.64–4.752.89–8.87safer0.86–4.511.22–5.182.08–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.12 0.26–1.97 0.04–2.20 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.24–4.84 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.99–6.72 2.50–7.21 | 3.85 2.10–5.59 1.64–6.05 | 8.70 5.09–12.30 4.14–13.26 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.91 10.99–18.84 9.90–19.93 | 10.41 6.85–13.98 5.89–14.94 | 25.33 17.84–32.82 15.79–34.87 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.21 6.27–12.15 5.44–12.98 | 7.03 4.35–9.71 3.61–10.45 | 16.24 10.62–21.87 9.05–23.43 | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 2.07–5.84 1.53–6.38 | 2.90 1.24–4.55 0.75–5.04 | 6.85 3.32–10.39 2.28–11.42 | 58% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.78 3.56–7.99 2.99–8.56 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.64–6.70 | 9.95 5.73–14.16 4.63–15.27 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 50.44 43.65–57.23 41.98–58.90 | 49.93 43.14–56.71 41.47–58.38 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 467 400–534 382–552 | 438 372–505 354–522 | 905 772–1039 736–1075 | 59% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.92 64.89–72.95 63.60–74.25 | 70.67 66.35–74.99 65.04–76.30 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 14.82 11.99–17.66 11.23–18.42 | 11.44 8.50–14.39 7.75–15.14 | 26.27 20.49–32.05 18.98–33.55 | 71% 22% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 1.73 0.63–2.82 0.35–3.11 | 3.47 1.22–5.72 0.63–6.31 | 39% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.77 0.40–3.03 | 1.76 0.63–2.89 0.34–3.18 | 3.48 1.30–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 3.20 1.64–4.75 1.22–5.18 | 5.88 2.89–8.87 2.08–9.68 | 34% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.