Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.342.70safe0.39–2.320.49–2.190.87–4.52safer0.14–2.580.26–2.420.39–5.00
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.534.398.92safe2.67–6.392.65–6.135.31–12.52safer2.18–6.882.18–6.604.36–13.48
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9413.1826.12safe9.02–16.879.61–16.7418.63–33.61safer7.93–17.968.66–17.7016.58–35.66
Shots in box
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.478.9517.42safe5.53–11.416.27–11.6311.79–23.04safer4.70–12.245.53–12.3710.23–24.61
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.423.677.08safe1.53–5.302.01–5.323.55–10.62safer0.99–5.841.52–5.812.51–11.65
Corners
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.909.44safe2.33–6.762.90–6.905.23–13.66safer1.76–7.332.37–7.434.12–14.77
Possession %
49%
47%
homeawayprediction50.4049.94safe43.61–57.1943.16–56.73safer41.94–58.8641.49–58.40
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction473443917safe406–541377–510783–1050safer388–559359–527747–1086
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction68.4372.50safe64.40–72.4668.18–76.83safer63.11–73.7566.87–78.14
Fouls
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1715.1426.31safe8.33–14.0112.20–18.0920.53–32.09safer7.57–14.7611.45–18.8319.02–33.60
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.673.49safe0.66–2.980.57–2.761.24–5.74safer0.36–3.280.28–3.050.65–6.33
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.123.64safe0.48–2.580.99–3.241.46–5.82safer0.21–2.840.69–3.540.91–6.38
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
40%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.176.25safe1.64–4.511.62–4.733.26–9.24safer1.25–4.901.19–5.162.45–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.32 0.14–2.58 | 1.34 0.49–2.19 0.26–2.42 | 2.70 0.87–4.52 0.39–5.00 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.53 2.67–6.39 2.18–6.88 | 4.39 2.65–6.13 2.18–6.60 | 8.92 5.31–12.52 4.36–13.48 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 12.94 9.02–16.87 7.93–17.96 | 13.18 9.61–16.74 8.66–17.70 | 26.12 18.63–33.61 16.58–35.66 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.47 5.53–11.41 4.70–12.24 | 8.95 6.27–11.63 5.53–12.37 | 17.42 11.79–23.04 10.23–24.61 | 41% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 1.53–5.30 0.99–5.84 | 3.67 2.01–5.32 1.52–5.81 | 7.08 3.55–10.62 2.51–11.65 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 4.54 2.33–6.76 1.76–7.33 | 4.90 2.90–6.90 2.37–7.43 | 9.44 5.23–13.66 4.12–14.77 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Possession % | 50.40 43.61–57.19 41.94–58.86 | 49.94 43.16–56.73 41.49–58.40 | — | 49% 47% |
| Passes | 473 406–541 388–559 | 443 377–510 359–527 | 917 783–1050 747–1086 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.43 64.40–72.46 63.11–73.75 | 72.50 68.18–76.83 66.87–78.14 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 11.17 8.33–14.01 7.57–14.76 | 15.14 12.20–18.09 11.45–18.83 | 26.31 20.53–32.09 19.02–33.60 | 19% 75% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.66–2.98 0.36–3.28 | 1.67 0.57–2.76 0.28–3.05 | 3.49 1.24–5.74 0.65–6.33 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.21–2.84 | 2.12 0.99–3.24 0.69–3.54 | 3.64 1.46–5.82 0.91–6.38 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 3.17 1.62–4.73 1.19–5.16 | 6.25 3.26–9.24 2.45–10.05 | 40% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.