Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.293.13safe0.87–2.800.44–2.151.31–4.95safer0.61–3.050.21–2.380.83–5.43
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.364.249.60safe3.50–7.222.50–5.985.99–13.20safer3.01–7.712.03–6.455.04–14.16
Total shots
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3912.0927.47safe11.46–19.318.52–15.6519.99–34.96safer10.37–20.407.56–16.6117.93–37.01
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.797.3417.13safe6.85–12.734.65–10.0211.50–22.75safer6.02–13.563.92–10.759.94–24.32
Blocked shots
50%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.913.427.33safe2.03–5.791.77–5.083.80–10.87safer1.48–6.331.28–5.572.76–11.90
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.954.2810.23safe3.74–8.172.28–6.286.02–14.44safer3.17–8.741.74–6.814.91–15.55
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.8349.24safe44.04–57.6242.45–56.02safer42.37–59.2940.78–57.69
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction500472971safe432–567405–538838–1105safer414–585388–556802–1141
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction71.5072.60safe67.47–75.5368.28–76.93safer66.18–76.8266.97–78.24
Fouls
41%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1512.8525.00safe9.31–14.999.90–15.7919.22–30.78safer8.56–15.749.15–16.5417.71–32.29
Offsides
46%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.683.68safe0.84–3.160.59–2.781.43–5.93safer0.53–3.460.30–3.070.84–6.52
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.753.50safe0.70–2.800.62–2.881.32–5.67safer0.43–3.060.33–3.170.76–6.23
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.396.22safe1.39–4.271.84–4.953.23–9.22safer1.01–4.651.41–5.372.42–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.87–2.80 0.61–3.05 | 1.29 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.38 | 3.13 1.31–4.95 0.83–5.43 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.36 3.50–7.22 3.01–7.71 | 4.24 2.50–5.98 2.03–6.45 | 9.60 5.99–13.20 5.04–14.16 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.39 11.46–19.31 10.37–20.40 | 12.09 8.52–15.65 7.56–16.61 | 27.47 19.99–34.96 17.93–37.01 | 70% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.79 6.85–12.73 6.02–13.56 | 7.34 4.65–10.02 3.92–10.75 | 17.13 11.50–22.75 9.94–24.32 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 2.03–5.79 1.48–6.33 | 3.42 1.77–5.08 1.28–5.57 | 7.33 3.80–10.87 2.76–11.90 | 50% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.95 3.74–8.17 3.17–8.74 | 4.28 2.28–6.28 1.74–6.81 | 10.23 6.02–14.44 4.91–15.55 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 50.83 44.04–57.62 42.37–59.29 | 49.24 42.45–56.02 40.78–57.69 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 500 432–567 414–585 | 472 405–538 388–556 | 971 838–1105 802–1141 | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.50 67.47–75.53 66.18–76.82 | 72.60 68.28–76.93 66.97–78.24 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 12.15 9.31–14.99 8.56–15.74 | 12.85 9.90–15.79 9.15–16.54 | 25.00 19.22–30.78 17.71–32.29 | 41% 52% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.53–3.46 | 1.68 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.07 | 3.68 1.43–5.93 0.84–6.52 | 46% 21% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.43–3.06 | 1.75 0.62–2.88 0.33–3.17 | 3.50 1.32–5.67 0.76–6.23 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.39–4.27 1.01–4.65 | 3.39 1.84–4.95 1.41–5.37 | 6.22 3.23–9.22 2.42–10.03 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.