Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.432.73safe0.34–2.270.57–2.280.91–4.55safer0.08–2.520.34–2.510.43–5.03
Shots on target
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.774.959.73safe2.91–6.643.21–6.706.12–13.33safer2.42–7.132.75–7.165.17–14.29
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5413.0527.59safe10.61–18.469.49–16.6120.10–35.07safer9.52–19.558.53–17.5718.05–37.13
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction9.239.2118.43safe6.28–12.176.53–11.8912.81–24.06safer5.45–13.005.79–12.6311.24–25.62
Blocked shots
45%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.933.787.71safe2.05–5.822.13–5.434.18–11.25safer1.51–6.361.64–5.933.14–12.29
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.714.3910.10safe3.50–7.932.39–6.395.89–14.31safer2.93–8.501.85–6.924.78–15.42
Possession %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction46.9852.55safe40.19–53.7745.77–59.34safer38.52–55.4444.09–61.01
Passes
34%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction464511975safe396–531445–577841–1108safer378–549427–595805–1144
Pass accuracy %
23%
72%
homeawayprediction69.0974.20safe65.06–73.1269.88–78.53safer63.76–74.4168.57–79.84
Fouls
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1310.5423.66safe10.29–15.967.59–13.4817.88–29.44safer9.53–16.726.84–14.2316.37–30.95
Offsides
41%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.984.01safe0.87–3.190.89–3.081.76–6.27safer0.57–3.490.60–3.371.17–6.85
Yellow cards
45%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.693.66safe0.91–3.010.56–2.821.48–5.83safer0.65–3.280.27–3.110.92–6.39
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.213.366.58safe1.78–4.651.81–4.923.58–9.57safer1.39–5.041.38–5.352.77–10.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.34–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 1.43 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.51 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 34% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.91–6.64 2.42–7.13 | 4.95 3.21–6.70 2.75–7.16 | 9.73 6.12–13.33 5.17–14.29 | 41% 46% |
| Total shots | 14.54 10.61–18.46 9.52–19.55 | 13.05 9.49–16.61 8.53–17.57 | 27.59 20.10–35.07 18.05–37.13 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 9.23 6.28–12.17 5.45–13.00 | 9.21 6.53–11.89 5.79–12.63 | 18.43 12.81–24.06 11.24–25.62 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.93 2.05–5.82 1.51–6.36 | 3.78 2.13–5.43 1.64–5.93 | 7.71 4.18–11.25 3.14–12.29 | 45% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.50–7.93 2.93–8.50 | 4.39 2.39–6.39 1.85–6.92 | 10.10 5.89–14.31 4.78–15.42 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 46.98 40.19–53.77 38.52–55.44 | 52.55 45.77–59.34 44.09–61.01 | — | 35% 61% |
| Passes | 464 396–531 378–549 | 511 445–577 427–595 | 975 841–1108 805–1144 | 34% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.09 65.06–73.12 63.76–74.41 | 74.20 69.88–78.53 68.57–79.84 | — | 23% 72% |
| Fouls | 13.13 10.29–15.96 9.53–16.72 | 10.54 7.59–13.48 6.84–14.23 | 23.66 17.88–29.44 16.37–30.95 | 67% 26% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 1.98 0.89–3.08 0.60–3.37 | 4.01 1.76–6.27 1.17–6.85 | 41% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.65–3.28 | 1.69 0.56–2.82 0.27–3.11 | 3.66 1.48–5.83 0.92–6.39 | 45% 22% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.78–4.65 1.39–5.04 | 3.36 1.81–4.92 1.38–5.35 | 6.58 3.58–9.57 2.77–10.38 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.