Ligue 1·Regular Season - 26·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.122.59safe0.50–2.440.27–1.980.77–4.42safer0.25–2.690.04–2.210.29–4.89
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.783.328.11safe2.92–6.651.58–5.064.50–11.71safer2.43–7.141.11–5.533.55–12.67
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6610.3325.99safe11.73–19.586.77–13.8918.50–33.47safer10.64–20.675.81–14.8516.45–35.52
Shots in box
75%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.006.6916.69safe7.06–12.944.01–9.3711.07–22.31safer6.23–13.773.27–10.119.50–23.88
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.942.776.71safe2.06–5.821.11–4.423.17–10.24safer1.52–6.370.62–4.912.14–11.28
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.524.129.64safe3.31–7.742.12–6.125.43–13.86safer2.73–8.311.59–6.654.32–14.96
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.5150.08safe42.72–56.3043.30–56.87safer41.05–57.9741.63–58.54
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction468456923safe400–535389–522790–1057safer382–553372–540754–1093
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction70.0770.88safe66.04–74.1066.55–75.20safer64.75–75.3965.25–76.51
Fouls
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7611.2425.99safe11.92–17.598.29–14.1820.21–31.78safer11.16–18.357.54–14.9318.71–33.28
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.563.44safe0.72–3.040.46–2.651.18–5.69safer0.42–3.340.18–2.940.60–6.28
Yellow cards
41%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.513.13safe0.58–2.680.38–2.640.96–5.31safer0.31–2.940.09–2.930.40–5.87
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
29%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.225.67safe1.01–3.881.66–4.782.68–8.66safer0.62–4.271.24–5.201.86–9.47
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 2.59 0.77–4.42 0.29–4.89 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.78 2.92–6.65 2.43–7.14 | 3.32 1.58–5.06 1.11–5.53 | 8.11 4.50–11.71 3.55–12.67 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.66 11.73–19.58 10.64–20.67 | 10.33 6.77–13.89 5.81–14.85 | 25.99 18.50–33.47 16.45–35.52 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 10.00 7.06–12.94 6.23–13.77 | 6.69 4.01–9.37 3.27–10.11 | 16.69 11.07–22.31 9.50–23.88 | 75% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 2.06–5.82 1.52–6.37 | 2.77 1.11–4.42 0.62–4.91 | 6.71 3.17–10.24 2.14–11.28 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 5.52 3.31–7.74 2.73–8.31 | 4.12 2.12–6.12 1.59–6.65 | 9.64 5.43–13.86 4.32–14.96 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 49.51 42.72–56.30 41.05–57.97 | 50.08 43.30–56.87 41.63–58.54 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 468 400–535 382–553 | 456 389–522 372–540 | 923 790–1057 754–1093 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.07 66.04–74.10 64.75–75.39 | 70.88 66.55–75.20 65.25–76.51 | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 14.76 11.92–17.59 11.16–18.35 | 11.24 8.29–14.18 7.54–14.93 | 25.99 20.21–31.78 18.71–33.28 | 72% 21% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.56 0.46–2.65 0.18–2.94 | 3.44 1.18–5.69 0.60–6.28 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.68 0.31–2.94 | 1.51 0.38–2.64 0.09–2.93 | 3.13 0.96–5.31 0.40–5.87 | 41% 24% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.01–3.88 0.62–4.27 | 3.22 1.66–4.78 1.24–5.20 | 5.67 2.68–8.66 1.86–9.47 | 29% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.