Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.302.94safe0.67–2.610.44–2.151.12–4.76safer0.42–2.860.22–2.380.64–5.24
Shots on target
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.399.54safe3.29–7.012.65–6.145.94–13.15safer2.80–7.502.19–6.604.98–14.10
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5413.2127.75safe10.61–18.469.65–16.7720.26–35.24safer9.52–19.568.69–17.7318.21–37.29
Shots in box
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction9.658.7318.38safe6.71–12.596.05–11.4112.76–24.00safer5.88–13.425.31–12.1511.19–25.57
Blocked shots
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.994.348.33safe2.11–5.872.69–5.994.80–11.87safer1.57–6.422.20–6.493.76–12.90
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.639.71safe2.87–7.302.63–6.635.50–13.93safer2.29–7.872.10–7.164.39–15.03
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction53.7647.98safe46.97–60.5541.19–54.76safer45.30–62.2239.52–56.44
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction503453956safe436–570386–519822–1089safer418–588369–537786–1125
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction69.0174.00safe64.98–73.0469.67–78.32safer63.69–74.3368.36–79.63
Fouls
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8914.2025.09safe8.06–13.7311.25–17.1419.31–30.87safer7.30–14.4910.51–17.8917.81–32.38
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.853.65safe0.64–2.960.75–2.941.39–5.90safer0.34–3.260.47–3.230.80–6.49
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.193.82safe0.58–2.681.06–3.321.65–6.00safer0.32–2.950.77–3.611.09–6.56
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.053.296.34safe1.61–4.481.73–4.853.34–9.33safer1.22–4.871.31–5.272.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 0.67–2.61 0.42–2.86 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.22–2.38 | 2.94 1.12–4.76 0.64–5.24 | 45% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.15 3.29–7.01 2.80–7.50 | 4.39 2.65–6.14 2.19–6.60 | 9.54 5.94–13.15 4.98–14.10 | 53% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.54 10.61–18.46 9.52–19.56 | 13.21 9.65–16.77 8.69–17.73 | 27.75 20.26–35.24 18.21–37.29 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 9.65 6.71–12.59 5.88–13.42 | 8.73 6.05–11.41 5.31–12.15 | 18.38 12.76–24.00 11.19–25.57 | 54% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.11–5.87 1.57–6.42 | 4.34 2.69–5.99 2.20–6.49 | 8.33 4.80–11.87 3.76–12.90 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.87–7.30 2.29–7.87 | 4.63 2.63–6.63 2.10–7.16 | 9.71 5.50–13.93 4.39–15.03 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 53.76 46.97–60.55 45.30–62.22 | 47.98 41.19–54.76 39.52–56.44 | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 503 436–570 418–588 | 453 386–519 369–537 | 956 822–1089 786–1125 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.01 64.98–73.04 63.69–74.33 | 74.00 69.67–78.32 68.36–79.63 | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 10.89 8.06–13.73 7.30–14.49 | 14.20 11.25–17.14 10.51–17.89 | 25.09 19.31–30.87 17.81–32.38 | 22% 71% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 1.85 0.75–2.94 0.47–3.23 | 3.65 1.39–5.90 0.80–6.49 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.68 0.32–2.95 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 3.82 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 3.29 1.73–4.85 1.31–5.27 | 6.34 3.34–9.33 2.53–10.14 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.