Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.693.08safe0.43–2.370.83–2.541.26–4.91safer0.18–2.620.60–2.770.78–5.39
Shots on target
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.585.269.84safe2.72–6.453.52–7.006.24–13.45safer2.23–6.943.05–7.475.28–14.40
Total shots
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3515.2329.58safe10.42–18.2711.67–18.8022.09–37.07safer9.33–19.3610.71–19.7520.04–39.12
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction9.559.4418.99safe6.61–12.496.76–12.1213.36–24.61safer5.78–13.326.02–12.8611.80–26.18
Blocked shots
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.884.578.45safe2.00–5.762.91–6.224.91–11.98safer1.45–6.312.42–6.713.88–13.02
Corners
46%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.9210.00safe2.87–7.292.92–6.925.79–14.21safer2.29–7.872.39–7.454.68–15.32
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.3554.81safe38.56–52.1448.03–61.60safer36.89–53.8146.36–63.27
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction464524988safe397–531458–591854–1122safer379–549440–608819–1157
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction67.2876.68safe63.25–71.3172.36–81.01safer61.96–72.6071.05–82.31
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8110.6323.45safe9.98–15.657.69–13.5817.66–29.23safer9.22–16.416.94–14.3316.16–30.73
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.733.53safe0.64–2.960.64–2.821.27–5.78safer0.34–3.260.35–3.110.69–6.37
Yellow cards
43%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.503.23safe0.69–2.780.37–2.631.05–5.41safer0.42–3.050.08–2.920.50–5.97
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
52%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.622.966.58safe2.18–5.051.40–4.523.59–9.57safer1.80–5.440.98–4.942.78–10.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.69 0.83–2.54 0.60–2.77 | 3.08 1.26–4.91 0.78–5.39 | 32% 24% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.58 2.72–6.45 2.23–6.94 | 5.26 3.52–7.00 3.05–7.47 | 9.84 6.24–13.45 5.28–14.40 | 35% 52% |
| Total shots | 14.35 10.42–18.27 9.33–19.36 | 15.23 11.67–18.80 10.71–19.75 | 29.58 22.09–37.07 20.04–39.12 | 40% 53% |
| Shots in box | 9.55 6.61–12.49 5.78–13.32 | 9.44 6.76–12.12 6.02–12.86 | 18.99 13.36–24.61 11.80–26.18 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 2.00–5.76 1.45–6.31 | 4.57 2.91–6.22 2.42–6.71 | 8.45 4.91–11.98 3.88–13.02 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.87–7.29 2.29–7.87 | 4.92 2.92–6.92 2.39–7.45 | 10.00 5.79–14.21 4.68–15.32 | 46% 42% |
| Possession % | 45.35 38.56–52.14 36.89–53.81 | 54.81 48.03–61.60 46.36–63.27 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 464 397–531 379–549 | 524 458–591 440–608 | 988 854–1122 819–1157 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.28 63.25–71.31 61.96–72.60 | 76.68 72.36–81.01 71.05–82.31 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.81 9.98–15.65 9.22–16.41 | 10.63 7.69–13.58 6.94–14.33 | 23.45 17.66–29.23 16.16–30.73 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 1.73 0.64–2.82 0.35–3.11 | 3.53 1.27–5.78 0.69–6.37 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.69–2.78 0.42–3.05 | 1.50 0.37–2.63 0.08–2.92 | 3.23 1.05–5.41 0.50–5.97 | 43% 23% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.62 2.18–5.05 1.80–5.44 | 2.96 1.40–4.52 0.98–4.94 | 6.58 3.59–9.57 2.78–10.38 | 52% 15% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.