Ligue 1·Regular Season - 31·
Ligue 1·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
19%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.232.343.57safe0.26–2.201.49–3.201.75–5.40safer0.01–2.451.26–3.431.27–5.88
Shots on target
19%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction4.106.3710.47safe2.24–5.964.63–8.126.87–14.08safer1.75–6.454.16–8.585.91–15.03
Total shots
17%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4815.8627.34safe7.55–15.4012.29–19.4219.85–34.82safer6.46–16.5011.33–20.3817.80–36.87
Shots in box
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction7.6311.1518.78safe4.69–10.588.47–13.8313.16–24.41safer3.86–11.417.73–14.5711.59–25.97
Blocked shots
28%
14%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.084.157.24safe1.20–4.972.50–5.803.70–10.77safer0.66–5.512.01–6.302.66–11.81
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.975.699.67safe1.76–6.193.69–7.695.45–13.88safer1.19–6.763.16–8.234.35–14.99
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction35.2365.63safe28.44–42.0258.84–72.41safer26.77–43.6957.17–74.08
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction3776521029safe310–445586–718896–1163safer292–463568–736860–1199
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction69.6783.75safe65.64–73.7079.43–88.07safer64.35–74.9978.12–89.38
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9810.0421.03safe8.15–13.827.10–12.9915.25–26.81safer7.39–14.586.35–13.7413.74–28.31
Offsides
53%
19%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.591.924.51safe1.43–3.750.83–3.012.26–6.77safer1.13–4.050.54–3.301.67–7.36
Yellow cards
40%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.533.14safe0.56–2.650.40–2.660.96–5.32safer0.29–2.920.11–2.950.40–5.87
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.792.536.32safe2.36–5.230.97–4.083.33–9.31safer1.97–5.620.55–4.512.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 2.34 1.49–3.20 1.26–3.43 | 3.57 1.75–5.40 1.27–5.88 | 19% 19% 62% |
| Shots on target | 4.10 2.24–5.96 1.75–6.45 | 6.37 4.63–8.12 4.16–8.58 | 10.47 6.87–14.08 5.91–15.03 | 19% 71% |
| Total shots | 11.48 7.55–15.40 6.46–16.50 | 15.86 12.29–19.42 11.33–20.38 | 27.34 19.85–34.82 17.80–36.87 | 17% 77% |
| Shots in box | 7.63 4.69–10.58 3.86–11.41 | 11.15 8.47–13.83 7.73–14.57 | 18.78 13.16–24.41 11.59–25.97 | 18% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 3.08 1.20–4.97 0.66–5.51 | 4.15 2.50–5.80 2.01–6.30 | 7.24 3.70–10.77 2.66–11.81 | 28% 14% 58% |
| Corners | 3.97 1.76–6.19 1.19–6.76 | 5.69 3.69–7.69 3.16–8.23 | 9.67 5.45–13.88 4.35–14.99 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 35.23 28.44–42.02 26.77–43.69 | 65.63 58.84–72.41 57.17–74.08 | — | 96% |
| Passes | 377 310–445 292–463 | 652 586–718 568–736 | 1029 896–1163 860–1199 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.67 65.64–73.70 64.35–74.99 | 83.75 79.43–88.07 78.12–89.38 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 10.98 8.15–13.82 7.39–14.58 | 10.04 7.10–12.99 6.35–13.74 | 21.03 15.25–26.81 13.74–28.31 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.59 1.43–3.75 1.13–4.05 | 1.92 0.83–3.01 0.54–3.30 | 4.51 2.26–6.77 1.67–7.36 | 53% 19% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.65 0.29–2.92 | 1.53 0.40–2.66 0.11–2.95 | 3.14 0.96–5.32 0.40–5.87 | 40% 24% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.79 2.36–5.23 1.97–5.62 | 2.53 0.97–4.08 0.55–4.51 | 6.32 3.33–9.31 2.52–10.13 | 62% 14% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.