Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.323.07safe0.78–2.720.47–2.181.25–4.89safer0.53–2.970.24–2.410.77–5.37
Shots on target
54%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.825.0210.84safe3.96–7.683.28–6.767.23–14.44safer3.47–8.172.81–7.236.28–15.40
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5013.0129.51safe12.58–20.439.45–16.5722.02–37.00safer11.49–21.528.49–17.5319.97–39.05
Shots in box
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction10.658.9219.57safe7.71–13.606.24–11.6013.95–25.19safer6.88–14.435.50–12.3312.38–26.76
Blocked shots
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.607.77safe2.29–6.051.94–5.254.23–11.30safer1.75–6.601.45–5.743.20–12.34
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.149.84safe3.48–7.912.14–6.145.62–14.05safer2.91–8.481.61–6.684.52–15.16
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.6245.06safe48.83–62.4138.28–51.85safer47.16–64.0836.61–53.52
Passes
86%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction5724431015safe505–640376–509881–1149safer487–658359–527846–1184
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction72.6771.91safe68.64–76.7067.59–76.24safer67.35–78.0066.28–77.55
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4311.5822.01safe7.60–13.278.63–14.5216.23–27.79safer6.84–14.037.88–15.2714.72–29.30
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.673.53safe0.70–3.020.58–2.761.27–5.78safer0.40–3.320.29–3.050.69–6.37
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.853.29safe0.39–2.490.72–2.981.11–5.47safer0.13–2.760.43–3.270.55–6.03
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.110.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.360.00–0.430.00–0.79
GK saves
33%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.113.726.83safe1.68–4.552.16–5.283.84–9.83safer1.29–4.941.74–5.703.03–10.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.78–2.72 0.53–2.97 | 1.32 0.47–2.18 0.24–2.41 | 3.07 1.25–4.89 0.77–5.37 | 47% 23% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.82 3.96–7.68 3.47–8.17 | 5.02 3.28–6.76 2.81–7.23 | 10.84 7.23–14.44 6.28–15.40 | 54% 35% |
| Total shots | 16.50 12.58–20.43 11.49–21.52 | 13.01 9.45–16.57 8.49–17.53 | 29.51 22.02–37.00 19.97–39.05 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 10.65 7.71–13.60 6.88–14.43 | 8.92 6.24–11.60 5.50–12.33 | 19.57 13.95–25.19 12.38–26.76 | 61% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.29–6.05 1.75–6.60 | 3.60 1.94–5.25 1.45–5.74 | 7.77 4.23–11.30 3.20–12.34 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.70 3.48–7.91 2.91–8.48 | 4.14 2.14–6.14 1.61–6.68 | 9.84 5.62–14.05 4.52–15.16 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 55.62 48.83–62.41 47.16–64.08 | 45.06 38.28–51.85 36.61–53.52 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 572 505–640 487–658 | 443 376–509 359–527 | 1015 881–1149 846–1184 | 86% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.67 68.64–76.70 67.35–78.00 | 71.91 67.59–76.24 66.28–77.55 | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 10.43 7.60–13.27 6.84–14.03 | 11.58 8.63–14.52 7.88–15.27 | 22.01 16.23–27.79 14.72–29.30 | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.32 | 1.67 0.58–2.76 0.29–3.05 | 3.53 1.27–5.78 0.69–6.37 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.49 0.13–2.76 | 1.85 0.72–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.29 1.11–5.47 0.55–6.03 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.36 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.68–4.55 1.29–4.94 | 3.72 2.16–5.28 1.74–5.70 | 6.83 3.84–9.83 3.03–10.64 | 33% 15% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.