Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
24%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.702.93safe0.26–2.200.84–2.551.11–4.75safer0.01–2.450.61–2.780.63–5.23
Shots on target
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.345.029.36safe2.48–6.203.27–6.765.75–12.96safer1.99–6.692.81–7.224.80–13.92
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4213.4325.86safe8.50–16.359.87–17.0018.37–33.34safer7.41–17.448.91–17.9616.32–35.39
Shots in box
34%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.458.5516.01safe4.51–10.395.87–11.2410.38–21.63safer3.68–11.225.14–11.978.82–23.20
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.313.707.01safe1.42–5.192.05–5.353.47–10.54safer0.88–5.731.56–5.852.44–11.58
Corners
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.724.669.38safe2.51–6.942.66–6.665.17–13.60safer1.94–7.512.13–7.194.06–14.70
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.7452.31safe41.95–55.5345.53–59.10safer40.28–57.2043.86–60.77
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction5075341041safe439–574468–600907–1174safer421–592450–618871–1210
Pass accuracy %
24%
71%
homeawayprediction71.9076.80safe67.87–75.9372.48–81.12safer66.58–77.2271.17–82.43
Fouls
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6410.3120.95safe7.80–13.487.37–13.2615.17–26.73safer7.05–14.246.62–14.0013.67–28.24
Offsides
40%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.523.12safe0.44–2.760.43–2.620.87–5.37safer0.13–3.060.14–2.900.28–5.96
Yellow cards
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.463.08safe0.57–2.670.33–2.590.90–5.26safer0.30–2.930.04–2.880.35–5.82
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.212.956.16safe1.78–4.651.39–4.513.17–9.15safer1.39–5.040.97–4.932.36–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.70 0.84–2.55 0.61–2.78 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.63–5.23 | 28% 24% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.34 2.48–6.20 1.99–6.69 | 5.02 3.27–6.76 2.81–7.22 | 9.36 5.75–12.96 4.80–13.92 | 35% 52% |
| Total shots | 12.42 8.50–16.35 7.41–17.44 | 13.43 9.87–17.00 8.91–17.96 | 25.86 18.37–33.34 16.32–35.39 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.45 4.51–10.39 3.68–11.22 | 8.55 5.87–11.24 5.14–11.97 | 16.01 10.38–21.63 8.82–23.20 | 34% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.42–5.19 0.88–5.73 | 3.70 2.05–5.35 1.56–5.85 | 7.01 3.47–10.54 2.44–11.58 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 4.72 2.51–6.94 1.94–7.51 | 4.66 2.66–6.66 2.13–7.19 | 9.38 5.17–13.60 4.06–14.70 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 48.74 41.95–55.53 40.28–57.20 | 52.31 45.53–59.10 43.86–60.77 | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 507 439–574 421–592 | 534 468–600 450–618 | 1041 907–1174 871–1210 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.90 67.87–75.93 66.58–77.22 | 76.80 72.48–81.12 71.17–82.43 | — | 24% 71% |
| Fouls | 10.64 7.80–13.48 7.05–14.24 | 10.31 7.37–13.26 6.62–14.00 | 20.95 15.17–26.73 13.67–28.24 | 48% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.13–3.06 | 1.52 0.43–2.62 0.14–2.90 | 3.12 0.87–5.37 0.28–5.96 | 40% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.93 | 1.46 0.33–2.59 0.04–2.88 | 3.08 0.90–5.26 0.35–5.82 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.78–4.65 1.39–5.04 | 2.95 1.39–4.51 0.97–4.93 | 6.16 3.17–9.15 2.36–9.97 | 46% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.