Premiership·Regular Season - 3·
Premiership·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
60%
22%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.850.882.73safe0.89–2.810.02–1.740.90–4.55safer0.63–3.070.00–1.980.40–5.05actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.892.768.65safe4.04–7.751.05–4.475.09–12.21safer3.54–8.250.58–4.934.12–13.18actual7.007.0014.00
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction17.488.3925.87safe13.77–21.185.01–11.7718.78–32.95safer12.74–22.214.08–12.7016.82–34.91actual23.0012.0035.00
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction10.845.8116.65safe8.32–13.363.51–8.1111.84–21.47safer7.46–14.222.72–8.9110.17–23.13actual18.009.0027.00
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.572.757.32safe2.99–6.151.33–4.164.32–10.32safer2.45–6.690.85–4.653.30–11.34actual10.002.0012.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.743.9510.69safe4.54–8.951.97–5.936.51–14.87safer3.94–9.541.43–6.465.38–16.01actual15.007.0022.00
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.1543.77safe48.83–61.4737.46–50.09safer47.24–63.0635.86–51.69actual60.0040.00
Passes
72%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction437367803safe371–502302–431673–933safer354–519284–449638–968actual493329822
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction73.8272.92safe69.61–78.0468.42–77.43safer68.30–79.3467.09–78.76
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8811.2423.12safe9.03–14.748.30–14.1917.32–28.93safer8.14–15.637.38–15.1015.52–30.73actual8.0010.0018.00
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.353.02safe0.46–2.880.19–2.510.65–5.40safer0.12–3.230.00–2.850.00–6.07actual5.002.007.00
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.164.06safe0.84–2.951.04–3.281.88–6.24safer0.57–3.220.75–3.571.32–6.80actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.83actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
18%
14%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.963.625.58safe0.55–3.382.06–5.172.61–8.55safer0.16–3.771.63–5.601.79–9.37actual6.007.0013.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.85 0.89–2.81 0.63–3.07 | 0.00 | 0.88 0.02–1.74 0.00–1.98 | 1.00 | 2.73 0.90–4.55 0.40–5.05 | 1.00 | 60% 22% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.89 4.04–7.75 3.54–8.25 | 7.00 | 2.76 1.05–4.47 0.58–4.93 | 7.00 | 8.65 5.09–12.21 4.12–13.18 | 14.00 | 82% |
| Total shots | 17.48 13.77–21.18 12.74–22.21 | 23.00 | 8.39 5.01–11.77 4.08–12.70 | 12.00 | 25.87 18.78–32.95 16.82–34.91 | 35.00 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 10.84 8.32–13.36 7.46–14.22 | 18.00 | 5.81 3.51–8.11 2.72–8.91 | 9.00 | 16.65 11.84–21.47 10.17–23.13 | 27.00 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 4.57 2.99–6.15 2.45–6.69 | 10.00 | 2.75 1.33–4.16 0.85–4.65 | 2.00 | 7.32 4.32–10.32 3.30–11.34 | 12.00 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.74 4.54–8.95 3.94–9.54 | 15.00 | 3.95 1.97–5.93 1.43–6.46 | 7.00 | 10.69 6.51–14.87 5.38–16.01 | 22.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 55.15 48.83–61.47 47.24–63.06 | 60.00 | 43.77 37.46–50.09 35.86–51.69 | 40.00 | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 437 371–502 354–519 | 493 | 367 302–431 284–449 | 329 | 803 673–933 638–968 | 822 | 72% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.82 69.61–78.04 68.30–79.34 | — | 72.92 68.42–77.43 67.09–78.76 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 11.88 9.03–14.74 8.14–15.63 | 8.00 | 11.24 8.30–14.19 7.38–15.10 | 10.00 | 23.12 17.32–28.93 15.52–30.73 | 18.00 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.46–2.88 0.12–3.23 | 5.00 | 1.35 0.19–2.51 0.00–2.85 | 2.00 | 3.02 0.65–5.40 0.00–6.07 | 7.00 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.84–2.95 0.57–3.22 | 0.00 | 2.16 1.04–3.28 0.75–3.57 | 1.00 | 4.06 1.88–6.24 1.32–6.80 | 1.00 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 1.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 1.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 1.96 0.55–3.38 0.16–3.77 | 6.00 | 3.62 2.06–5.17 1.63–5.60 | 7.00 | 5.58 2.61–8.55 1.79–9.37 | 13.00 | 18% 14% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.