Premiership·Regular Season - 3·
Premiership·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
61%
21%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.003.04safe1.08–3.000.14–1.861.22–4.86safer0.82–3.260.00–2.110.71–5.37actual0.004.004.00
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.474.029.48safe3.61–7.322.31–5.725.92–13.05safer3.11–7.821.84–6.194.95–14.01actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9012.1327.03safe11.20–18.608.75–15.5119.95–34.11safer10.17–19.647.82–16.4417.99–36.08actual12.0011.0023.00
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.426.9817.40safe7.90–12.934.68–9.2812.58–22.21safer7.04–13.803.88–10.0810.92–23.87actual5.007.0012.00
Blocked shots
65%
13%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.342.827.16safe2.76–5.931.40–4.234.16–10.16safer2.22–6.460.91–4.723.14–11.18actual2.003.005.00
Corners
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.784.4110.19safe3.57–7.982.43–6.396.00–14.37safer2.98–8.581.89–6.924.87–15.50actual5.002.007.00
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction61.2938.13safe54.98–67.6131.81–44.44safer53.38–69.2130.21–46.04actual69.0031.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction588361949safe523–654296–425819–1079safer505–671278–443784–1114actual6943101004
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction86.1872.43safe81.97–90.4067.92–76.94safer80.66–91.7066.59–78.27
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9312.0722.99safe8.07–13.789.12–15.0117.19–28.79safer7.18–14.678.20–15.9315.39–30.60actual7.0012.0019.00
Offsides
31%
24%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.642.95safe0.10–2.520.47–2.800.58–5.32safer0.00–2.860.14–3.130.00–6.00actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.093.75safe0.60–2.710.97–3.211.57–5.92safer0.33–2.990.68–3.501.01–6.48actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.86actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.295.76safe1.06–3.891.73–4.842.79–8.73safer0.67–4.281.30–5.271.97–9.55actual0.005.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 1.08–3.00 0.82–3.26 | 0.00 | 1.00 0.14–1.86 0.00–2.11 | 4.00 | 3.04 1.22–4.86 0.71–5.37 | 4.00 | 61% 21% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.47 3.61–7.32 3.11–7.82 | 5.00 | 4.02 2.31–5.72 1.84–6.19 | 4.00 | 9.48 5.92–13.05 4.95–14.01 | 9.00 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.90 11.20–18.60 10.17–19.64 | 12.00 | 12.13 8.75–15.51 7.82–16.44 | 11.00 | 27.03 19.95–34.11 17.99–36.08 | 23.00 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 10.42 7.90–12.93 7.04–13.80 | 5.00 | 6.98 4.68–9.28 3.88–10.08 | 7.00 | 17.40 12.58–22.21 10.92–23.87 | 12.00 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.34 2.76–5.93 2.22–6.46 | 2.00 | 2.82 1.40–4.23 0.91–4.72 | 3.00 | 7.16 4.16–10.16 3.14–11.18 | 5.00 | 65% 13% 22% |
| Corners | 5.78 3.57–7.98 2.98–8.58 | 5.00 | 4.41 2.43–6.39 1.89–6.92 | 2.00 | 10.19 6.00–14.37 4.87–15.50 | 7.00 | 61% 28% |
| Possession % | 61.29 54.98–67.61 53.38–69.21 | 69.00 | 38.13 31.81–44.44 30.21–46.04 | 31.00 | — | — | 92% |
| Passes | 588 523–654 505–671 | 694 | 361 296–425 278–443 | 310 | 949 819–1079 784–1114 | 1004 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.18 81.97–90.40 80.66–91.70 | — | 72.43 67.92–76.94 66.59–78.27 | — | — | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 10.93 8.07–13.78 7.18–14.67 | 7.00 | 12.07 9.12–15.01 8.20–15.93 | 12.00 | 22.99 17.19–28.79 15.39–30.60 | 19.00 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.10–2.52 0.00–2.86 | 1.00 | 1.64 0.47–2.80 0.14–3.13 | 3.00 | 2.95 0.58–5.32 0.00–6.00 | 4.00 | 31% 24% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.60–2.71 0.33–2.99 | 2.00 | 2.09 0.97–3.21 0.68–3.50 | 3.00 | 3.75 1.57–5.92 1.01–6.48 | 5.00 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.86 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.06–3.89 0.67–4.28 | 0.00 | 3.29 1.73–4.84 1.30–5.27 | 5.00 | 5.76 2.79–8.73 1.97–9.55 | 5.00 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.