Premiership·Regular Season - 3·
Premiership·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
26%
22%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.933.25safe0.36–2.291.07–2.791.43–5.08safer0.10–2.550.82–3.040.93–5.58actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
29%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.255.429.67safe2.39–6.103.71–7.136.10–13.23safer1.89–6.603.24–7.595.14–14.20actual3.009.0012.00
Total shots
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6414.6127.25safe8.93–16.3411.23–17.9920.17–34.33safer7.90–17.3710.30–18.9218.20–36.29actual9.0014.0023.00
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction8.6510.3118.96safe6.13–11.178.01–12.6114.15–23.78safer5.27–12.037.22–13.4112.48–25.44actual6.0012.0018.00
Blocked shots
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.064.128.18safe2.47–5.642.71–5.545.18–11.18safer1.94–6.182.22–6.034.16–12.20actual2.004.006.00
Corners
26%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.536.1210.65safe2.32–6.734.15–8.106.47–14.83safer1.73–7.333.61–8.645.33–15.97actual2.0011.0013.00
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction39.8358.91safe33.51–46.1552.59–65.23safer31.92–47.7450.99–66.82actual40.0060.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction403591994safe337–468526–656864–1123safer320–485509–673828–1159actual386591977
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction68.4581.80safe64.23–72.6777.29–86.30safer62.93–73.9775.96–87.63
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5110.4019.91safe6.65–12.377.46–13.3514.11–25.72safer5.77–13.256.54–14.2712.31–27.52actual13.009.0022.00
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.081.843.93safe0.87–3.290.68–3.011.55–6.30safer0.53–3.640.35–3.340.88–6.97actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
47%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.403.22safe0.76–2.870.28–2.521.04–5.39safer0.49–3.150.00–2.810.48–5.96actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
52%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.866.35safe2.07–4.901.31–4.423.38–9.32safer1.68–5.290.88–4.852.56–10.14actual8.003.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.36–2.29 0.10–2.55 | 0.00 | 1.93 1.07–2.79 0.82–3.04 | 1.00 | 3.25 1.43–5.08 0.93–5.58 | 1.00 | 26% 22% 52% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.10 1.89–6.60 | 3.00 | 5.42 3.71–7.13 3.24–7.59 | 9.00 | 9.67 6.10–13.23 5.14–14.20 | 12.00 | 29% 58% |
| Total shots | 12.64 8.93–16.34 7.90–17.37 | 9.00 | 14.61 11.23–17.99 10.30–18.92 | 14.00 | 27.25 20.17–34.33 18.20–36.29 | 23.00 | 32% 61% |
| Shots in box | 8.65 6.13–11.17 5.27–12.03 | 6.00 | 10.31 8.01–12.61 7.22–13.41 | 12.00 | 18.96 14.15–23.78 12.48–25.44 | 18.00 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 2.47–5.64 1.94–6.18 | 2.00 | 4.12 2.71–5.54 2.22–6.03 | 4.00 | 8.18 5.18–11.18 4.16–12.20 | 6.00 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Corners | 4.53 2.32–6.73 1.73–7.33 | 2.00 | 6.12 4.15–8.10 3.61–8.64 | 11.00 | 10.65 6.47–14.83 5.33–15.97 | 13.00 | 26% 63% |
| Possession % | 39.83 33.51–46.15 31.92–47.74 | 40.00 | 58.91 52.59–65.23 50.99–66.82 | 60.00 | — | — | 87% |
| Passes | 403 337–468 320–485 | 386 | 591 526–656 509–673 | 591 | 994 864–1123 828–1159 | 977 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.45 64.23–72.67 62.93–73.97 | — | 81.80 77.29–86.30 75.96–87.63 | — | — | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 9.51 6.65–12.37 5.77–13.25 | 13.00 | 10.40 7.46–13.35 6.54–14.27 | 9.00 | 19.91 14.11–25.72 12.31–27.52 | 22.00 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.08 0.87–3.29 0.53–3.64 | 0.00 | 1.84 0.68–3.01 0.35–3.34 | 2.00 | 3.93 1.55–6.30 0.88–6.97 | 2.00 | 44% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.76–2.87 0.49–3.15 | 2.00 | 1.40 0.28–2.52 0.00–2.81 | 2.00 | 3.22 1.04–5.39 0.48–5.96 | 4.00 | 47% 23% 30% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.49 2.07–4.90 1.68–5.29 | 8.00 | 2.86 1.31–4.42 0.88–4.85 | 3.00 | 6.35 3.38–9.32 2.56–10.14 | 11.00 | 52% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.