Premiership·Regular Season - 7·
Premiership·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
29%
24%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.713.01safe0.33–2.260.85–2.571.19–4.83safer0.07–2.520.61–2.820.68–5.34actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.175.099.26safe2.32–6.033.38–6.805.70–12.82safer1.82–6.532.91–7.264.73–13.79actual6.004.0010.00
Total shots
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0414.0526.09safe8.34–15.7410.67–17.4319.01–33.17safer7.31–16.779.74–18.3617.05–35.14actual11.0015.0026.00
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.398.9117.30safe5.88–10.916.61–11.2112.48–22.12safer5.01–11.775.81–12.0110.82–23.78actual9.0010.0019.00
Blocked shots
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.524.347.87safe1.94–5.112.93–5.764.87–10.87safer1.41–5.642.44–6.243.85–11.89actual4.006.0010.00
Corners
33%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.765.6710.43safe2.56–6.973.69–7.656.25–14.61safer1.96–7.563.15–8.185.11–15.75actual9.009.0018.00
Possession %
84%
homeawayprediction41.1058.11safe34.78–47.4251.79–64.43safer33.19–49.0250.20–66.03actual39.0061.00
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction361547908safe296–427482–611778–1038safer278–444464–629743–1073actual313547860
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction64.7673.73safe60.54–68.9769.22–78.23safer59.24–70.2767.89–79.56
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6511.2321.88safe7.79–13.518.29–14.1816.08–27.68safer6.91–14.397.37–15.0914.27–29.48actual8.009.0017.00
Offsides
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.073.76safe0.49–2.900.90–3.231.39–6.13safer0.14–3.250.57–3.560.71–6.81actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.893.34safe0.39–2.510.77–3.011.16–5.52safer0.12–2.780.48–3.300.60–6.08actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.11safe0.00–0.190.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.340.00–0.400.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
59%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.452.385.83safe2.04–4.870.82–3.932.86–8.80safer1.65–5.250.39–4.362.04–9.62actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.33–2.26 0.07–2.52 | 2.00 | 1.71 0.85–2.57 0.61–2.82 | 1.00 | 3.01 1.19–4.83 0.68–5.34 | 3.00 | 29% 24% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.32–6.03 1.82–6.53 | 6.00 | 5.09 3.38–6.80 2.91–7.26 | 4.00 | 9.26 5.70–12.82 4.73–13.79 | 10.00 | 32% 55% |
| Total shots | 12.04 8.34–15.74 7.31–16.77 | 11.00 | 14.05 10.67–17.43 9.74–18.36 | 15.00 | 26.09 19.01–33.17 17.05–35.14 | 26.00 | 31% 62% |
| Shots in box | 8.39 5.88–10.91 5.01–11.77 | 9.00 | 8.91 6.61–11.21 5.81–12.01 | 10.00 | 17.30 12.48–22.12 10.82–23.78 | 19.00 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 1.94–5.11 1.41–5.64 | 4.00 | 4.34 2.93–5.76 2.44–6.24 | 6.00 | 7.87 4.87–10.87 3.85–11.89 | 10.00 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Corners | 4.76 2.56–6.97 1.96–7.56 | 9.00 | 5.67 3.69–7.65 3.15–8.18 | 9.00 | 10.43 6.25–14.61 5.11–15.75 | 18.00 | 33% 55% |
| Possession % | 41.10 34.78–47.42 33.19–49.02 | 39.00 | 58.11 51.79–64.43 50.20–66.03 | 61.00 | — | — | 84% |
| Passes | 361 296–427 278–444 | 313 | 547 482–611 464–629 | 547 | 908 778–1038 743–1073 | 860 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.76 60.54–68.97 59.24–70.27 | — | 73.73 69.22–78.23 67.89–79.56 | — | — | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 10.65 7.79–13.51 6.91–14.39 | 8.00 | 11.23 8.29–14.18 7.37–15.09 | 9.00 | 21.88 16.08–27.68 14.27–29.48 | 17.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.49–2.90 0.14–3.25 | 1.00 | 2.07 0.90–3.23 0.57–3.56 | 1.00 | 3.76 1.39–6.13 0.71–6.81 | 2.00 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.39–2.51 0.12–2.78 | 1.00 | 1.89 0.77–3.01 0.48–3.30 | 1.00 | 3.34 1.16–5.52 0.60–6.08 | 2.00 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 3.45 2.04–4.87 1.65–5.25 | 3.00 | 2.38 0.82–3.93 0.39–4.36 | 4.00 | 5.83 2.86–8.80 2.04–9.62 | 7.00 | 59% 15% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.